NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8612f81865fd5d2f6ca9dd3dc8417ae29bd5a65643ce9f3ab879c859bf2845b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Thunder, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 47c | 8,120$3,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,845.99 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Grizzlies | 52c | 6,228$3,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,989.37 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 48c | 4,971$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Grizzlies | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Thunder | 48c | 2,277$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.82 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Grizzlies | 53c | 1,834$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.98 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Grizzlies | 52c | 1,160$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.8 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Grizzlies | 53c | 1,147$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 47c | 981.52$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Grizzlies | 54c | 700$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Grizzlies | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 376.09$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.49 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1350…7169backed Grizzlies | 53c | 350$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Thunder | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Grizzlies | 54c | 185.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder | 51c | 152.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Thunder | 14c | 104.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Grizzlies | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Thunder | 54c | 62.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 317 | 45.4%144 W · 173 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…c291backed Thunder | 48c | 60.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -55%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…bc84backed Grizzlies | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Grizzlies | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Grizzlies | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 40.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Thunder | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Grizzlies | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Grizzlies | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 48c | 27.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…6396backed Thunder | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…6fc0backed Grizzlies | 54c | 22.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Thunder | 50c | 21.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…bdddbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Thunder vs. GrizzliesThunder won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.