TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Thunder, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,651
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,651 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d18…4972backed Grizzlies48c22,000$10,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,349.9516339.3%64 W · 99 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder52c15,511$8,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,113.652,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder51c10,606$5,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,424.522,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder52c6,425$3,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,309.499,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Grizzlies47c3,909$1,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.7638251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Grizzlies51c3,888$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.5976746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Thunder53c2,452$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.0850653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Grizzlies45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10017744.1%78 W · 99 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Grizzlies46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08049142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Thunder55c1,654$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.9585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Grizzlies45c1,113$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.192,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Grizzlies49c1,100$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56161747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies48c1,058$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.12,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Thunder53c896.99$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.0963745.8%292 W · 345 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies49c797.9$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.113,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies62c786.76$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.528,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Thunder50c771.4$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.723250.4%117 W · 115 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…aa74backed Grizzlies51c664$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.361330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa886…cf55backed Thunder50c664$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3321376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+51.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Grizzlies48c599.98$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.9952844.7%236 W · 292 L+1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d59…e0edbacked Thunder51c589.51$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026250.4%132 W · 130 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bde…2b4dbacked Thunder51c588.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Thunder52c584.67$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.0316440.9%67 W · 97 L-13.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies47c539.64$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.426,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Thunder51c421.45$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.941,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Thunder49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19641742%175 W · 242 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Thunder55c389.99$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.51,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Thunder3c382$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.552,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad44…db14backed Grizzlies49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.125253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Grizzlies46c267.81$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.3714647.9%70 W · 76 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies46c255.32$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.224,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thunder10c245.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.572,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Grizzlies46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.391,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Grizzlies46c217.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3815649.4%77 W · 79 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Thunder51c217.14$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.742,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Thunder50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Grizzlies45c179.36$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9420353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Thunder56c177.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037352%194 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Thunder43c167.52$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.421,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Thunder54c159$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.861,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Grizzlies45c155.56$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5666046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Thunder53c140.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9188845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce28…51bfbacked Thunder51c109.08$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.631266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4466…9ad1backed Grizzlies46c108$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.322272.7%16 W · 6 L+5.3wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+67.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x03f9…f78ebacked Grizzlies47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3813339.1%52 W · 81 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Grizzlies48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.171,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Thunder54c103.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5623948.5%116 W · 123 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed Grizzlies51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4916547.3%78 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed Thunder21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2114727.2%40 W · 107 L-21.7wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-43.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Grizzlies48c97$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4462541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9b2…089abacked Thunder54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509340.9%38 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91c6…d4e2backed Thunder55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Grizzlies68c89.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.211,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Thunder50c82.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3423845.4%108 W · 130 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcd4…c870backed Thunder53c80.74$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-30.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder57c75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.753,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Thunder54c58.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5659141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae4…a127backed Grizzlies48c52.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0811041.8%46 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb298…c5a4backed Thunder51c51.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.271533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Grizzlies49c51.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.121,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a91…88e1backed Grizzlies46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+30.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c24…b601backed Thunder51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Grizzlies47c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7168940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x058a…ed5cbacked Grizzlies45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.445040%20 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacf9…c291backed Thunder51c41.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick49cpaid-55%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Thunder34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.656050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Grizzlies50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2032455.9%181 W · 143 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Grizzlies66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.650347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5701…e344backed Grizzlies47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.21656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Grizzlies47c39.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2166143.4%287 W · 374 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3907…c3cdbacked Thunder53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Grizzlies48c34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7891846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Grizzlies49c30.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6116036.3%58 W · 102 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Grizzlies48c30.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.662,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5c…5103backed Thunder51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-75.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x320f…855bbacked Thunder51c29.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.951533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0dc9…9813backed Grizzlies50c28.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.051291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.4wins+0.37per pick55cpaid+66.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x07c3…5fbebacked Grizzlies50c26.64$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.321471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+58.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Grizzlies47c26.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0822247.3%105 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Grizzlies44c26.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.722,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies44c26.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.724,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f8…0454backed Grizzlies50c25.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.921291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.2wins+0.35per pick57cpaid+64%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe8c9…eb72backed Grizzlies50c25.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.861376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick46cpaid+70.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x207b…df20backed Grizzlies45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.759642.7%41 W · 55 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x515a…2556backed Thunder51c23.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.151233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-51.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc092…14fbbacked Thunder51c22.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.261020%2 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-71%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4870…2534backed Grizzlies50c20.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.431283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+54.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x89a4…5f78backed Grizzlies50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1010053%53 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffcf…ec0ebacked Grizzlies50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109846.9%46 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x914b…a886backed Thunder50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.