MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20c3180903a9ec9d4a5018faa8af62469d2d12c729e8f8408d1d5bf69ddbe505
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 54c | 11,241$6,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,024.84 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Over | 48c | 10,000$4,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,229.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 8,293$4,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,188.31 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 47c | 7,370$3,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,899.12 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Over | 49c | 5,331$2,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,702.67 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 4,248$2,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.46 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.9 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 1,569$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.88 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 52c | 994.8$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.3 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Over | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…312ebacked Over | 48c | 729.17$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.17 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 52c | 654.59$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.39 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2c…94c5backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb44…3eafbacked Over | 46c | 499.97$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Under | 54c | 420$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 50c | 411$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.5 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c72…8b8bbacked Over | 46c | 399.86$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Under | 24c | 397.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 355$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 48c | 291.73$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.83 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 48c | 256.25$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…a10bbacked Under | 54c | 235.46$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Over | 48c | 231.25$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Under | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…f5debacked Over | 47c | 128$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Under | 51c | 125$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…4e82backed Over | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 600 | 52.2%313 W · 287 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…4d6cbacked Over | 47c | 103.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 47c | 101.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 51c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b8…aec0backed Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…a2e2backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…4806backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 55c | 19.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Blue Jays vs. DodgersDodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.