NFL · resolved market
Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x214d93c57ada0bef3ee037ef10edcbe28adfd1cafc9bc6b60ad2e713c155ab64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Cowboys, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $228,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Cardinals | 43c | 165,211$70,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94,429.03 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423e…77e9backed Cowboys | 57c | 131,684$75,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,059.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cardinals | 45c | 39,865$18,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,774.6 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Cowboys | 56c | 22,276$12,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,474.31 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Cowboys | 58c | 20,510$11,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,800.93 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Cowboys | 51c | 7,044$3,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,605.32 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Cowboys | 58c | 5,726$3,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,321.08 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Cardinals | 50c | 5,574$2,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,787.29 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cowboys | 50c | 5,459$2,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.39 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Cowboys | 54c | 5,272$2,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,870.36 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Cardinals | 44c | 4,545$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,545.45 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Cowboys | 57c | 2,700$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Cowboys | 58c | 2,379$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Cowboys | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Cowboys | 56c | 1,980$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.58 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Cowboys | 2c | 1,900$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Cowboys | 57c | 1,739$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.95 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cardinals | 42c | 1,512$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.06 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…9c86backed Cowboys | 56c | 1,404$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Cowboys | 57c | 1,100$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Cowboys | 57c | 1,028$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Cardinals | 47c | 1,000$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Cardinals | 47c | 869.99$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.1 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Cowboys | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Cowboys | 55c | 854.05$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Cowboys | 53c | 569.77$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.98 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cardinals | 43c | 494.93$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.66 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Cowboys | 58c | 471.41$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.42 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…2000backed Cardinals | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Cowboys | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Cowboys | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Cowboys | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…0764backed Cowboys | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…9b30backed Cowboys | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Cardinals | 43c | 301$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.57 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cardinals | 43c | 300.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.56 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Cowboys | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…d410backed Cowboys | 57c | 263.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Cowboys | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Cowboys | 57c | 190$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…1f44backed Cowboys | 58c | 189.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416a…00a1backed Cowboys | 58c | 182.09$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…30babacked Cowboys | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Cowboys | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…11d4backed Cowboys | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Cowboys | 50c | 145$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cardinals | 43c | 143$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Cowboys | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…36c1backed Cowboys | 57c | 118.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Cardinals | 48c | 108.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Cowboys | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Cowboys | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Cowboys | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…b15bbacked Cowboys | 57c | 94.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…7912backed Cowboys | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cowboys | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Cardinals | 43c | 54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…0a95backed Cardinals | 45c | 50.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…dcd3backed Cowboys | 57c | 36.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4c…0314backed Cowboys | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cardinals | 44c | 34.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Cardinals | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…a377backed Cowboys | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb118…947ebacked Cowboys | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Cowboys | 57c | 24.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc13…cb0fbacked Cowboys | 57c | 24.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…dcb5backed Cowboys | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40f…3749backed Cowboys | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-0.5)Cardinals won
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)Cardinals won
- Cardinals vs. CowboysCardinals won
- Cardinals vs. Cowboys: 1H MoneylineCardinals won
- Cardinals vs. Cowboys: 1H O/U 26.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5Under won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.