NFL · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e48b3f2240f80f7237c42154a2855a2391ff6815518e9f32f121659d177588c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 47c | 58,683$27,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,632.2 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 47c | 32,225$15,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,139.39 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Under | 53c | 30,000$15,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,100 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,399.99 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 53c | 17,312$9,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,198.2 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Under | 53c | 13,650$7,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,415.5 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Over | 46c | 9,386$4,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,317.67 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 4,757$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197.42 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 47c | 3,008$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.58 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Over | 60c | 2,607$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.12 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 40c | 2,544$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.62 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 54c | 1,637$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.34 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 54c | 1,350$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 53c | 849.27$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.16 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 54c | 741.99$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.32 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 47c | 738.62$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.66 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Under | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed Under | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +52%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 571.18$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.95 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 50c | 560$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 53c | 550$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.24 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 54c | 507.83$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.6 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Over | 47c | 468.09$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Under | 54c | 411.11$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.11 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 162 | 75.3%122 W · 40 L | +17.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 351.22$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.7 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 5c | 290$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ef…b2fdbacked Under | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…40d2backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Over | 47c | 210.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 52c | 181.9$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Over | 46c | 116.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Over | 46c | 102.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 205 | 57.6%118 W · 87 L | +16.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…0995backed Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefcf…2a46backed Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…72a3backed Under | 55c | 60.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Over | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Over | 48c | 39.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…0acbbacked Under | 54c | 28.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…b347backed Under | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-0.5)Cardinals won
- 1H Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)Cardinals won
- Cardinals vs. CowboysCardinals won
- Cardinals vs. Cowboys: 1H MoneylineCardinals won
- Cardinals vs. Cowboys: 1H O/U 26.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.