Fifa International · resolved market
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x223a40a8fefaf62f84ca8b37ab8ef0762dffa04ce90cfd59b96e72bfb9c111aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 39c | 628.68$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.77 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 60c | 484.92$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.25 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 44c | 377.09$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.62 | 263 | 30%79 W · 184 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5d…4a56backed Yes | 59c | 305.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 35c | 229$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 39c | 228.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 165 | 40.6%67 W · 98 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked No | 43c | 190.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 59c | 182.84$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 178 | 28.1%50 W · 128 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 62c | 172$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 58c | 166.36$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 23c | 160.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…8397backed Yes | 70c | 142.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 68c | 125.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 120.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 114.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed No | 34c | 103.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 38c | 90.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 35c | 87.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 42c | 81.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 147 | 39.5%58 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 69c | 54.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c8…9617backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e3…1987backed Yes | 69c | 43.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 42.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 69c | 41.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c1…a18cbacked No | 43c | 40.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…74debacked No | 43c | 34.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…6a24backed Yes | 70c | 33.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…3fdcbacked Yes | 66c | 21.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 31cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?this page
- Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.