Fifa International · resolved market
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb94d1f99934178ff2abd10626aed1d50d90b21c3db68b688a561b2276ce26ce9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 30c | 634.09$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.21 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 65c | 248.08$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 33c | 243.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 192$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7d…7609backed Yes | 40c | 164.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 71c | 163.48$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 160.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 27c | 156.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 69c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 33c | 136.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 81.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 79.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 68c | 75.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e1…38debacked Yes | 27c | 72.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3650…d17cbacked No | 69c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 68c | 54.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 67c | 50.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 29c | 40.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 34c | 38.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b0…acdebacked No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf18…17b5backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…1828backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4f…4cfebacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84d…c11abacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 72c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…cfb0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 15.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?this page
- Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.