Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x229ecf23a0df1d997755491b50b2213ec5a4b2b8158f415d65a861f7f3af9a65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 0c | 4,971$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 1c | 2,404$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 1,239$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.45 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 8c | 953.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 18c | 904.78$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed No | 79c | 699$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 551.45$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.63 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 69c | 500.85$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.73 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 376.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 311.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 300.42$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 286.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 218.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 25c | 215.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 196$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 195$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 193.04$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 173.08$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 172.2$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 35c | 168.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 163.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 157$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 33c | 153.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 141$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 67c | 140.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 74c | 134.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 13c | 132.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 126.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 13c | 124.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 32c | 120.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 66c | 110.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 104.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 102$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 32c | 100.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 98.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 69c | 96.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 31c | 96.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 90.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 16c | 89.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 83.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 70c | 81.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 35c | 79.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 32c | 78.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 58c | 77.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 33c | 75.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 67c | 74.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 71.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 71.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 71.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 71.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 64c | 69.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 66.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 60.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 68c | 59.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 51.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 50.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 50.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 47.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 46.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 45.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 66c | 45.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 33c | 43.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 35c | 43.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 72c | 41.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 31c | 40.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 50c | 38.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 67c | 37.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 30c | 37.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 35c | 36.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 40c | 34.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 69c | 34.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 45c | 32.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 35c | 32.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 35c | 31.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 31.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 33c | 31.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 66c | 30.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 67c | 29.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 66c | 28.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 65c | 26.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 64c | 25.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 25.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 68c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 66c | 21.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.