Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1e2970834f19f7302f3010d39837a1f97b7f81004fe1ce4bbbc574cfa77e47b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 371.43$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 69c | 289.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.06 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed Yes | 27c | 284.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 277.15$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 9c | 178.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 177.51$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 170.9$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 156.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 140.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 77c | 126.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 16c | 124.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 114$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 102.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 95.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 94.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 93.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 29c | 91.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 28c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 84.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 83.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 81.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 33c | 75.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 23c | 74.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 20c | 71.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 71.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 30c | 70.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 68.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 68.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 32c | 65.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…a0a6backed No | 71c | 64.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 23c | 60.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 30c | 60.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 55.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 31c | 45.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 27c | 41.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 41.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…388cbacked No | 65c | 36.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 79c | 36.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 35.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed No | 78c | 32.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 35c | 31.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 33c | 31.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 30.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 25.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…e520backed No | 69c | 20.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 18.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 71c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 76c | 17.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 75c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 74c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.