TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,428
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,428 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes18c1,895$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.81,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes43c1,202$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.0992028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes24c782.63$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.588,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes22c440.7$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.323129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c6…2b25backed No24c419.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032958.7%193 W · 136 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes75c417$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.4832147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes34c409.36$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.4445130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes72c303.78$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0138454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes34c298.3$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5369520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No73c296.87$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.944,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No5c229.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes9c220.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.37,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No77c214$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.643,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes28c211.52$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.2534533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc16…ef14backed Yes30c205.39$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.395527.3%15 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No74c197.8$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.658,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No71c193.04$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.962,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes31c189.31$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.1322335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes7c178.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16794919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes10c158.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.371,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes13c154.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed No8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes14c149.85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.691,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8320…e302backed Yes41c134.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2110430.8%32 W · 72 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb901…9fc4backed Yes59c125.69$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3911883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes23c119.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3915040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No21c116.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8956322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes78c113.39$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.36,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No74c101$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.41,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8915915.7%25 W · 134 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84e3…3dfdbacked No73c98.48$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.414878.4%116 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes17c98.18$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.553,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No45c91.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.441,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No53c85.51$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.134,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No76c82.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.974,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes19c79.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.144734%16 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c72.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes60c71.75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.76,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No72c70.83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c69.67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.752,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40de…66bdbacked No76c64.65$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.121241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No73c62.09$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.637669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c60.89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked No76c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3756048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…234ebacked Yes17c60$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.742623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No18c57.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.142,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No76c57.3$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe9…56d9backed No27c54.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.515570.9%39 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes22c51.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3146232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.260739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.372445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes24c49.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1412233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No42c49.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.091,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No50c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.098060%48 W · 32 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No67c49.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9660054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No76c42.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.781,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eaf…1f76backed Yes51c39.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.561050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes39c38.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.421,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes60c37.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.862,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No63c37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.443,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No61c36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.964,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9a…1757backed No73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.782748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.359,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No78c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.273,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes36c28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.921,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff5…14babacked No72c27.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015375.2%115 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes55c27.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.341,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc97e…09abbacked No65c25.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7416161.5%99 W · 62 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No80c25.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.064,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes79c24.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.128176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No77c23.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1851156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.282,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No77c19.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1128360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e3e…c58bbacked No77c17.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.775064%32 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked No74c17.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1424141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No77c17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.162,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes65c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.961,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No77c16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3489557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No72c15.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No67c15.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2327852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.