Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22d2f4ec066dec0249270f781ef317de08d44f524a2b6dfb2551bb62fb33c2a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,307 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 17,505$11,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,011.04 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Over | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 55c | 6,304$3,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,856.55 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…06c4backed Over | 61c | 4,628$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 38c | 2,640$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.19 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 70c | 2,417$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.98 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…1f26backed Over | 48c | 2,145$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…be71backed Over | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 15c | 1,250$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.28 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 1,022$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.67 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 32c | 899.99$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 68c | 873.81$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.57 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 32c | 815$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.8 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 68c | 619.7$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.13 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 30c | 504.92$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.39 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…016dbacked Under | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 43c | 420$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 39c | 410.26$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb31…3bf2backed Over | 63c | 384.99$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…75abbacked Under | 75c | 362.16$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa308…94b9backed Under | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 34c | 303.42$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 27c | 300.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 57c | 289.47$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 48c | 254.64$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 67c | 249.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 67c | 249.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 67c | 249.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 38c | 241.3$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.27 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Under | 68c | 239.71$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…8974backed Under | 37c | 228.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 32c | 215.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed Under | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Under | 41c | 204.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Over | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 31c | 173.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Over | 31c | 156.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…bdc2backed Under | 69c | 150.72$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…8526backed Under | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 33c | 126.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…0758backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…073fbacked Over | 69c | 102.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 32c | 93.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cf…6639backed Over | 32c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…ea8ebacked Under | 69c | 92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 16c | 81.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed80…0022backed Over | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…e89dbacked Over | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 70c | 73.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 67c | 72.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 41c | 72.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 74c | 69.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 74c | 65.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 33c | 64.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…8293backed Under | 56c | 62.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 70c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 142 | 47.9%68 W · 74 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409b…21e8backed Over | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 47c | 42.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…483abacked Under | 69c | 42.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 38c | 42.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 57c | 40.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over | 30c | 39.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Over | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa028…0031backed Over | 31c | 33.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…5587backed Over | 67c | 32.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…08a6backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 33c | 30.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 68c | 26.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…3ee9backed Under | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8656…718dbacked Under | 61c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 68c | 18.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 140 | 57.1%80 W · 60 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5)AS Monaco FC won
- Spread: AS Monaco FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)AS Monaco FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)AS Monaco FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.