TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,946
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,946 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes34c1,616$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.021,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No62c632.31$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.8366543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No6c492.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.114,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes31c450.4$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.571850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c429.86$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.8712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed Yes39c392.04$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.4142754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No65c369.51$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.84,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c324.76$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.488,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes29c300.25$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.794,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc388…ed37backed No61c199.99$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.991936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes41c196.63$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.631,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No73c195.45$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.311,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No71c191$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.321068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes39c180.97$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.771,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes33c174.39$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.335,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No17c163.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.794,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No63c157.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6927461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes36c146.68$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.329,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No54c146.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.714,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No62c145.76$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.092,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No66c128$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.821,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes39c126.23$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.281,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes39c120.77$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6970741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes70c116.97$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.216,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes42c110.95$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.126344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No28c108.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4224164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes38c99.55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No60c90$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011965.5%78 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No61c80$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9763143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No61c77.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.927,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No63c76.19$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.075,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c70.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No67c70.43$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.141,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa957…7638backed Yes70c63$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.074555.6%25 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No63c62.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2137355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No65c59.92$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8735264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes47c57.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes55c56.78$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.438028.8%23 W · 57 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes35c56.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6313839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de6…f3e4backed Yes46c56.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.432171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes39c56.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.968949.4%44 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes39c55.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.252,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes37c54.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.053452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4719…0e32backed Yes56c54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes65c53.53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6413588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes32c53.28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.281,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes47c53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes39c52.79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.249551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No60c50.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5491861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.525549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No65c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.484,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes37c49.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4821339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb0f…b951backed Yes78c47.14$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.374983.7%41 W · 8 L+13.2wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+59.7%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes49c46.54$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5633962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes65c46.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1843441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed No66c45.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No43c43.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.778,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c43.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.273,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No60c42.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7754547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No61c41.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.413,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No61c41.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2816859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes76c41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9666758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes40c40.84$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.351,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed Yes42c38.89$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.715449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No63c38.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.091,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes36c37.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2415553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No68c36.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8423146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa922…9a52backed Yes55c36.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.57452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No69c36.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521472%154 W · 60 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes42c35.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6159144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes34c35.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.154253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.452,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x254a…dacbbacked Yes38c33.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8716950.9%86 W · 83 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed No61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022064.5%142 W · 78 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes43c32.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.432,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9973…6e40backed Yes35c32.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.077040%28 W · 42 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes34c32.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.55,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No62c31.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.21,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.65,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No71c29.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5994066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec21…c83fbacked No74c26.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207166.2%47 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-15.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xecd7…c7e1backed No45c26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.74854.2%26 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1790…6fd2backed Yes55c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.74334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9a…8193backed No62c24.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.112050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No62c21.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.261,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No60c20.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No71c19.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1494552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No71c19.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fba…006dbacked No61c17.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.533548.6%17 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.054,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No62c16.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17f2…adcabacked No64c16.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5511163.1%70 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No62c16.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0866944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.