Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22d5ae553b35ba6208ef87ac8d0d83d63d40b8585602349093d3ce713ce9ea5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 1,616$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.02 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 62c | 632.31$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.83 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 6c | 492.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…d8cdbacked Yes | 31c | 450.4$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.57 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 429.86$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 39c | 392.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.41 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 369.51$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 324.76$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 300.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.79 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed No | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 196.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.63 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 73c | 195.45$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 71c | 191$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 180.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 174.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 163.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 63c | 157.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 146.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 146.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 145.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 66c | 128$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 39c | 126.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 39c | 120.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 70c | 116.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 42c | 110.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 28c | 108.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 99.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 77.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 63c | 76.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 70.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 70.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 70c | 63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 63c | 62.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 65c | 59.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 57.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 55c | 56.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 35c | 56.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed Yes | 46c | 56.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 39c | 56.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 39c | 55.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4719…0e32backed Yes | 56c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 65c | 53.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 53.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 39c | 52.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 50.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 37c | 49.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 78c | 47.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 49c | 46.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 65c | 46.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 66c | 45.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 43c | 43.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 43.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 60c | 42.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 41.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 61c | 41.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 40c | 40.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 42c | 38.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 38.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 36c | 37.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 68c | 36.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 55c | 36.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 69c | 36.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 35.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 34c | 35.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 38c | 33.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 32.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 35c | 32.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 32.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 31.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 29.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…8193backed No | 62c | 24.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 21.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 20.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 19.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 19.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 62c | 16.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 64c | 16.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.