Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x238e76ab8673302f69465f6276dc30397f2da6d45e256d1addb3727c52d426cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 7c | 2,925$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.09 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 5c | 857$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 78c | 692.2$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 9c | 296.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…fb65backed No | 75c | 216.98$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 8c | 207$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 65c | 158.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 12c | 147.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 15c | 127.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ef…aeeebacked No | 9c | 115.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 95.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 59c | 73.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…8150backed No | 68c | 65.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 60.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 52c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 48c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 49.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e36…e5ccbacked Yes | 36c | 28.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 55c | 27.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 52c | 24.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 23.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 62c | 21.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…c516backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 76c | 17.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09?this page
- Will Alea Nadeem be the Republican nominee for OH-09?No won
- Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09?No won
- Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.