Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x241feeb007124326a677145402ffa80e779039033d8b52900ebbee54b2f2166d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 33c | 3,361$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.88 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 31c | 1,430$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.21 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,061$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.4 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,018$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 2c | 956.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 926.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 882.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 855.06$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.27 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 725.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed No | 67c | 598.81$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.81 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 25c | 564.89$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.95 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 22c | 541.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.2 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 72c | 536.64$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.8 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 532$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 472$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 433.24$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed Yes | 15c | 377.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…ee09backed Yes | 30c | 337.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 274.75$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 274.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 34c | 254.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 221$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 217.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 201.15$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…6a7bbacked Yes | 20c | 195.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 12c | 180.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 14c | 169.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 35c | 165.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 164.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa6…d54abacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 25c | 151.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 9c | 150.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 150.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…10efbacked Yes | 33c | 147.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 136.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 133.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 62c | 125.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 37c | 110.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 108.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 43c | 99.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 66c | 98.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 95.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 12c | 93.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 84.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…08e3backed Yes | 30c | 84.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 32c | 83.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 40c | 82.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 23c | 75.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 69.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 67.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 62.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 50.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…8a6abacked Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 42c | 43.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 39.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…f533backed No | 74c | 37.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 74c | 37.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3a…af71backed Yes | 29c | 34.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 36c | 33.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 31.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 50c | 31.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…8b1cbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 24.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 44c | 22.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 21.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 76c | 20.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.