Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6598dc1fe42808a230ee69ff51c18fc6c457f9a3d1b5617d1c5424f27898d0bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 56c | 1,052$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.71 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 1c | 1,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 38c | 1,039$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.98 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 870.97$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.03 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 35c | 828.02$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.82 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 805.34$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 36c | 561.4$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.96 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 37c | 500$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.12 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 472$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 434.62$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 388$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.44 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 385.24$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 376.11$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.62 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 360$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8570…a720backed Yes | 47c | 307.88$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 284$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.85 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 35c | 282.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.71 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 64c | 270.6$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.06 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 59c | 256.67$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.3 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 22c | 240.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.34 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 214.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 53c | 199.96$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 49c | 197$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.03 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 38c | 196$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 194.17$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.19 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 26c | 173$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 150.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 150.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 144.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 11c | 129$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 122.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 56c | 120.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 11c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 40c | 114.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 113.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 55c | 110$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 108.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 42c | 106.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 47c | 100.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 58c | 93.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 48c | 93.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 88.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 28c | 87.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 44c | 86.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 84.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 38c | 84.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 37c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 48c | 79.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 79.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 49c | 76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 37c | 74.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 64c | 70.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 67.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 66.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 64.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 63c | 63.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 72c | 61.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 51c | 59.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…d4c3backed Yes | 51c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 28c | 41.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 41.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…2a5fbacked No | 54c | 40.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 37c | 37.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7f…cc9bbacked Yes | 47c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 46c | 36.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 52c | 33.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 32.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 32.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 31.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 31.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 30.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…81e4backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 67c | 29.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 47c | 28.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631e…e8e9backed Yes | 38c | 27.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 46c | 27.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.