Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc8471d83367716ae20cc4174e538244b6a4d07fc6e3de594b6dcafedb73aca2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 37c | 3,200$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.45 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed Yes | 1c | 2,355$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 1c | 1,530$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 22c | 1,187$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.73 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 56c | 1,151$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 26c | 1,055$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.09 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 16c | 969.63$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.47 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 32c | 718.96$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.77 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 18c | 694.46$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.35 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 8c | 510.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 18c | 497.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 14c | 439.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 424.08$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 27c | 400.15$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.16 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 16c | 395$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 9c | 387.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 374.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 366.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 14c | 355.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 7c | 354.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 44c | 338.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked Yes | 12c | 317.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 315.55$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed Yes | 7c | 274.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 33c | 243.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d52…a20cbacked Yes | 74c | 205.02$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 73c | 204.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 25c | 204.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 13c | 203.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 58c | 199.54$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 27c | 194.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.46 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 12c | 193.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 12c | 192.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 13c | 174.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 24c | 165.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 164.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…dbb1backed Yes | 13c | 159.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 153.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 148.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 147.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 41c | 134.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 128.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 8c | 126.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 28c | 116.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 115.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 49c | 110.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 14c | 104.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 17c | 104.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 14c | 100.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 100.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 11c | 97.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 14c | 95.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 91.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 19c | 88.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 81.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 81.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed Yes | 17c | 78.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…8de4backed No | 67c | 74.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 16c | 68.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fba…20ecbacked Yes | 15c | 65.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 23c | 64.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…740dbacked Yes | 18c | 63.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 33c | 59.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 18c | 55.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 19c | 53.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed No | 65c | 50.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked No | 75c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 70c | 48.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 44.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 48c | 38.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 38.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 31.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 29.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 29.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 51c | 21.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 13.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.