TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,506
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,040

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,506 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b20…bc23backed No66c5,861$3,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,857.6681165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes48c2,301$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.61,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes28c1,368$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.212,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes28c1,240$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.361,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes33c1,065$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.818,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No43c736.37$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.258,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No48c659.78$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.3546824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26018945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes49c438.02$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.3922740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No50c353$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.52,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes67c277.64$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.576,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No62c275.2$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.444,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No50c241.95$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.171,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes49c240$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.81,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No55c238.47$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No37c205$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.664,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No51c155$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.051,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No45c152.77$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.681,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed No58c147.13$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3415841.8%66 W · 92 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes51c133.53$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.347,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No63c127.71$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.54,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes51c108.55$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.684,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2312…8ae7backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No50c96$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4818449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes48c93.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8882742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes32c88.01$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.852,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes40c85$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5185049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.289,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes31c81.93$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.412,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes47c81.57$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.052,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No53c74$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.221,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes74c72.5$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.012,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No55c71.4$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.072,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes30c67.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.674,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes42c65.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.753,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes52c65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.218043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe584…9157backed Yes41c63.63$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3924531%76 W · 169 L-1.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes48c62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.442,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes52c60.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9959144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.24,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes32c59.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.981,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No77c57.72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5811169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c56.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc65e…0b4ebacked No56c52.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.621883.3%15 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+26%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes54c51.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.086,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2292761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5162137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes43c45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6518555.7%103 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes62c40.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.452,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed Yes55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.21,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.841760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf301…b2a6backed Yes56c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No62c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.61,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked Yes44c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.620056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.637056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes35c39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.354,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes43c37.84$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.577159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes45c37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes71c34.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.072,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No68c34.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4516548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a5f…d2d9backed Yes53c33.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.552437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No45c33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8557150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes49c30.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.522552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc58e…db6bbacked Yes46c26.63$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.38560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf673…3277backed Yes46c26.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.171050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x404d…84cdbacked No44c22.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101850%9 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes46c22.07$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.923,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf183…83ccbacked No52c21.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.383138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes57c20.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.895133.3%17 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6011…b31ebacked Yes52c20.05$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6416295.7%155 W · 7 L+61.2wins+0.38per pick58cpaid+97.3%equal weight86+0.33 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1028…1316backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb672…a1f1backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51bb…df40backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.226067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35d7…28f8backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc97e…09abbacked No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2516161.5%99 W · 62 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1018254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.