Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24808ead2440799a2175923e709ab2bca7c0a72e69e988624e158bd27c1a2a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,014$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 67 | 1.5%1 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 44c | 1,105$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.96 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 75c | 659.13$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.6 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 42c | 651.55$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.92 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1c…90d2backed Yes | 51c | 466.79$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 420.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d3…0f13backed Yes | 39c | 360$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 298.07$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…675cbacked No | 70c | 206.17$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed No | 14c | 160.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.74 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 55c | 159.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 58c | 155.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 154.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 134.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 59c | 131$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 19c | 119.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.63 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed No | 19c | 116.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 99.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 52c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed Yes | 43c | 93.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 15c | 82.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 45c | 73.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 66c | 68.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 60.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…a3fabacked Yes | 57c | 50.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 58c | 48.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 70c | 47.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 66c | 47.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 50c | 46.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 35c | 46.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 38c | 45.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 31c | 44.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 68c | 44.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 55c | 44.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 43.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…5f75backed Yes | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 76c | 40.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 38.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…abc4backed No | 44c | 36.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15d…0c3bbacked No | 44c | 33.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked No | 43c | 33.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…e39ebacked No | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 58c | 31.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 58c | 30.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 42c | 28.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 54c | 25.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e47…e1ecbacked No | 45c | 25.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…4f78backed No | 45c | 23.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2c…0854backed Yes | 58c | 23.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 20.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…7034backed Yes | 58c | 20.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…8d7ebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed Yes | 54c | 19.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 62c | 16.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 2?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.