TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Edward Winter

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Soon-Woo Kwonof Soon-Woo Kwon, Edward Winter
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$251,634
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$214,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,634 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9a3f…914abacked Edward Winter22c75,000$16,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,544.6714343.4%62 W · 81 L-14.5wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Edward Winter4c29,649$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1558,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Soon-Woo Kwon63c23,279$14,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,613.33714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-77.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Edward Winter26c13,321$3,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,471.7762956.9%358 W · 271 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Soon-Woo Kwon79c11,611$9,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.466,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Soon-Woo Kwon79c11,323$8,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,332.974,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Edward Winter18c6,382$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.113,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Edward Winter33c4,567$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50071729.8%214 W · 503 L-39.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Soon-Woo Kwon77c4,392$3,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.253,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Edward Winter17c3,184$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.174,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Soon-Woo Kwon75c2,612$1,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.0931253.2%166 W · 146 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x307a…d612backed Soon-Woo Kwon74c2,300$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5985151%26 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Edward Winter14c1,926$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.6871725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Soon-Woo Kwon71c1,708$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.5411,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Soon-Woo Kwon73c1,582$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.272,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd898…a47dbacked Edward Winter29c1,557$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4504630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a1…1227backed Edward Winter21c1,423$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004351.2%22 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Soon-Woo Kwon79c1,192$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.962,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Edward Winter18c1,038$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.763,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Edward Winter20c1,003$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.633235.2%117 W · 215 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e73…ac97backed Edward Winter31c967.97$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020452.5%107 W · 97 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbad…4f53backed Edward Winter17c889.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15035444.6%158 W · 196 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Edward Winter17c876.65$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4255941.3%231 W · 328 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Edward Winter38c781.65$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.0870537.6%265 W · 440 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Soon-Woo Kwon79c770.07$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4576355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Edward Winter19c748.32$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.83,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09da…56ffbacked Edward Winter14c614.29$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8611832.2%38 W · 80 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Edward Winter18c600$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Edward Winter38c574.99$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.3921937.9%83 W · 136 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc4…4870backed Edward Winter19c568.05$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1716051.3%82 W · 78 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Soon-Woo Kwon78c539.52$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.011,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Edward Winter19c528.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036621.6%79 W · 287 L+1.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked Edward Winter14c500$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7218552.4%97 W · 88 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Edward Winter3c419.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.741,02149.8%508 W · 513 L+42.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Edward Winter21c415.57$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.441,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked Edward Winter39c400$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15651744.7%231 W · 286 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Edward Winter10c393.28$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.334,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Soon-Woo Kwon71c390.41$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.221,36338.3%522 W · 841 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Edward Winter29c370.68$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.82,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Soon-Woo Kwon67c350.64$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7176146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Soon-Woo Kwon66c349.99$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11948941.1%201 W · 288 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb20b…a3e1backed Soon-Woo Kwon69c344.42$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.773141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12dc…75a8backed Edward Winter7c290.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202313%3 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf60…56c0backed Soon-Woo Kwon73c284.92$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.93366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5151…645cbacked Edward Winter6c265.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.937549.3%37 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1a9…e2dbbacked Soon-Woo Kwon63c255.6$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.578666.3%57 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Soon-Woo Kwon72c252.5$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.72,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Edward Winter21c241.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5036349.6%180 W · 183 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a14…9fe4backed Edward Winter20c241.35$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2740935.7%146 W · 263 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Soon-Woo Kwon80c240$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.81,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Soon-Woo Kwon80c221.53$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.312,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Soon-Woo Kwon80c212.25$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.451,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb2…126abacked Soon-Woo Kwon70c200.14$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1523738.8%92 W · 145 L+0.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa36c…5754backed Edward Winter25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5042042.6%179 W · 241 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a51…1e9fbacked Edward Winter11c184.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021842.2%92 W · 126 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Edward Winter16c133.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.354,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Soon-Woo Kwon78c119.49$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.821,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5120…b26bbacked Edward Winter32c119.06$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.13243.8%14 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd25…a624backed Edward Winter32c107.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3711553.9%62 W · 53 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f06…8ebebacked Edward Winter33c106.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520553.7%110 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Soon-Woo Kwon80c101.05$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.214,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfaa…28f7backed Edward Winter19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1993945.5%427 W · 512 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Soon-Woo Kwon65c96.46$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.761,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Edward Winter19c82.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.71,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Edward Winter18c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.432031.3%100 W · 220 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0b…9c4ebacked Soon-Woo Kwon80c75.06$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.06977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Soon-Woo Kwon80c75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5429…83c2backed Edward Winter20c74.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520128.4%57 W · 144 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x097c…630abacked Edward Winter25c72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821052.4%110 W · 100 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03dd…49c8backed Edward Winter37c66.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6446851.5%241 W · 227 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Edward Winter26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519057.9%110 W · 80 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a20…d606backed Soon-Woo Kwon75c48$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1292674.6%691 W · 235 L+1.7wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd1d…6f23backed Soon-Woo Kwon75c42.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.672751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c1…a9e9backed Edward Winter25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa65e…81d4backed Soon-Woo Kwon78c38.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.63063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0882…dceabacked Edward Winter40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Soon-Woo Kwon72c34.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.727,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d4…7c0dbacked Soon-Woo Kwon75c34.27$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7135461.3%217 W · 137 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e9…b2e0backed Soon-Woo Kwon68c33.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.821560%9 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x546a…1988backed Soon-Woo Kwon78c33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.289439.4%37 W · 57 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Soon-Woo Kwon73c32.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.731,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44be…76b1backed Soon-Woo Kwon80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Soon-Woo Kwon80c28.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7352847%248 W · 280 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf3d…1a59backed Soon-Woo Kwon73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.45253.8%28 W · 24 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f1a…f634backed Soon-Woo Kwon76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x007b…1fd2backed Soon-Woo Kwon75c25.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3316964.5%109 W · 60 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2180…df40backed Soon-Woo Kwon80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57048.6%34 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Soon-Woo Kwon79c23.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9595…f347backed Soon-Woo Kwon68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed Soon-Woo Kwon80c20.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0525259.9%151 W · 101 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedab…8926backed Soon-Woo Kwon64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.22544%11 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff7b…b79fbacked Soon-Woo Kwon80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49867.3%66 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Soon-Woo Kwon64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.288273.5%648 W · 234 L+19.8wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d47…9383backed Soon-Woo Kwon75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52250%11 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x580b…9535backed Soon-Woo Kwon71c17.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.081020%2 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-68.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Soon-Woo Kwon69c17.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.351,10256.5%623 W · 479 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Soon-Woo Kwon80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390152.3%471 W · 430 L-2.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Soon-Woo Kwon75c14.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.638066.3%252 W · 128 L-0.7wins0.00per pick67cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.