TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Oeiras 3: Felix Gill vs Roman Safiullin

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Roman Safiullinof Felix Gill, Roman Safiullin
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,246
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,246 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x31c1…7047backed Roman Safiullin29c13,031$3,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,200.179855.9%446 W · 352 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Felix Gill70c10,368$7,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,233.6211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Roman Safiullin32c3,781$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,557.737,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Roman Safiullin51c1,672$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.525,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Felix Gill50c1,597$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.9554345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Felix Gill66c1,379$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.276,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Felix Gill68c1,190$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.974,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Felix Gill40c1,065$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.613,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Felix Gill71c999.99$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71012055.8%67 W · 53 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Felix Gill40c983.28$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.3129444.2%130 W · 164 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Roman Safiullin33c980.4$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.31,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba0d…dd6bbacked Roman Safiullin60c882.53$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.015044%22 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Felix Gill30c848.76$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.9936944.4%164 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1b6…70ffbacked Roman Safiullin29c759.32$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.1220352.2%106 W · 97 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10cb…8f74backed Roman Safiullin27c708.04$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.82536%9 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Felix Gill13c571.82$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.691,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Roman Safiullin22c563.25$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.3468026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Felix Gill73c544.84$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.064,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Roman Safiullin32c527.31$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.520331%63 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f35…95dabacked Roman Safiullin80c472.6$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5245343.9%199 W · 254 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Roman Safiullin60c448.26$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.484,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Felix Gill73c388.39$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.552,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3dd…cdaebacked Felix Gill75c379.62$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.172070%14 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Roman Safiullin44c375.42$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.286,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe031…5c08backed Roman Safiullin25c366.52$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27673549.8%366 W · 369 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7abf…8dd3backed Felix Gill75c330.78$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.535961%36 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb66…c8dfbacked Felix Gill32c309$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.883831.6%12 W · 26 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-31.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Felix Gill37c293.52$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.971,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa79d…ee14backed Felix Gill77c263.42$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.825552.7%29 W · 26 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b98…2919backed Felix Gill69c254.46$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.772213.6%3 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf77…bae9backed Roman Safiullin44c230.62$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.1519443.3%84 W · 110 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Roman Safiullin43c224.6$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.021,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Roman Safiullin38c224$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.8838955.3%215 W · 174 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Felix Gill18c220.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.314,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Felix Gill75c219.17$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.3885348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Roman Safiullin62c200.81$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.311,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Felix Gill59c194.61$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8230844.5%137 W · 171 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Felix Gill52c187.18$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.111,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Roman Safiullin28c170.86$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0241544.3%184 W · 231 L-1.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb883…3994backed Roman Safiullin41c167.75$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5421549.8%107 W · 108 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Felix Gill51c155.29$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.22,08252.3%1,088 W · 994 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x093a…1b3fbacked Felix Gill79c144.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5427566.5%183 W · 92 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Roman Safiullin35c141.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.828,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Roman Safiullin60c140$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Roman Safiullin60c138.75$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.51,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Felix Gill71c138.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Felix Gill71c138.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9860355.4%334 W · 269 L+19.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Felix Gill71c138.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Felix Gill71c138.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9876853%407 W · 361 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Felix Gill71c138.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9818459.8%110 W · 74 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Felix Gill71c138.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9829652.4%155 W · 141 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5572…f01ebacked Felix Gill67c136.2$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2757953.7%311 W · 268 L+19.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Felix Gill74c133.03$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4437071.9%266 W · 104 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31d4…5c13backed Roman Safiullin36c132.67$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2932937.1%122 W · 207 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Felix Gill73c127.89$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3681457%464 W · 350 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa93…a0c9backed Felix Gill62c126.63$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.687562.7%47 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee7…f36ebacked Felix Gill79c124.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.74666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Roman Safiullin54c112.53$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.559,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2410…340cbacked Felix Gill71c110.28$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.511457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Roman Safiullin27c109.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.251,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Roman Safiullin28c102.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8127539.6%109 W · 166 L+1.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b5…7276backed Roman Safiullin47c100.45$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2427147.2%128 W · 143 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56e4…6ee4backed Felix Gill75c95.55$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6616152.8%85 W · 76 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Roman Safiullin64c93.57$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6858453.1%310 W · 274 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Felix Gill39c92.01$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8897745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Felix Gill54c83.6$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.424,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6b3…f8c1backed Roman Safiullin24c83.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4715641.7%65 W · 91 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed Roman Safiullin65c83$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0550259%296 W · 206 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Felix Gill55c82.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4565952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Felix Gill21c81.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.292,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59db…2e36backed Roman Safiullin67c81.26$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8514772.8%107 W · 40 L+19.7wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Roman Safiullin36c77.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.653,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Felix Gill56c76.07$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.41,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ed…72efbacked Roman Safiullin35c75.86$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3138754.3%210 W · 177 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Roman Safiullin76c71.18$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.245051.8%233 W · 217 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa78e…b6c9backed Roman Safiullin26c68.54$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9411865.3%77 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Felix Gill36c66.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.021,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x492a…b65cbacked Roman Safiullin30c66.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.14540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+77.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Felix Gill75c65.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2519055.3%105 W · 85 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed Felix Gill73c64.92$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1357267.3%385 W · 187 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Felix Gill66c61.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4457052.6%300 W · 270 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Roman Safiullin30c60.91$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6856817.4%99 W · 469 L-74.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Roman Safiullin65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53f9…e920backed Roman Safiullin49c59.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.468056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06f9…3978backed Roman Safiullin26c58.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.443237.5%12 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc187…7ac1backed Felix Gill73c54.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.515261.2%93 W · 59 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Felix Gill75c52.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.433557%191 W · 144 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x449f…f386backed Roman Safiullin38c51.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.043420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Felix Gill23c51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.696,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Felix Gill23c49.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.216144.7%72 W · 89 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Roman Safiullin48c48.79$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.332,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0358…30e2backed Roman Safiullin77c48.44$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.143889.5%34 W · 4 L+8.4wins+0.22per pick67cpaid+38.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Roman Safiullin40c48.42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.051,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Roman Safiullin65c47.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7964358.8%378 W · 265 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked Roman Safiullin47c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.719653.1%104 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb17…32b2backed Felix Gill58c41.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3120836.5%76 W · 132 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x591f…f067backed Felix Gill68c41.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.445773.7%42 W · 15 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Roman Safiullin35c41.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7752457.4%301 W · 223 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1105…09d0backed Roman Safiullin61c40.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6114958.4%87 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Felix Gill73c39.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7388273.5%648 W · 234 L+19.8wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.