TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Zero Tenacityof Zero Tenacity, summer bear
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,301

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,153 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfab…f067backed summer bear32c4,287$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.7748057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Zero Tenacity62c2,324$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.5347650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked summer bear39c2,135$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.181,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Zero Tenacity68c1,712$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.9454246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Zero Tenacity69c1,500$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.9979859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed summer bear4c1,303$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.653323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed summer bear25c1,248$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.612,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Zero Tenacity58c1,110$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.395342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed summer bear31c967.58$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x824b…8386backed summer bear39c766.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015848.1%76 W · 82 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Zero Tenacity50c680.59$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.2947646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Zero Tenacity55c542.31$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.3248053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe57f…7337backed summer bear8c518.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403938.5%15 W · 24 L-7.3wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-40.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked Zero Tenacity69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.8813142.7%56 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3868…7ecfbacked summer bear37c407.29$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.933834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed summer bear29c369.66$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0110933%36 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Zero Tenacity70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9051364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Zero Tenacity63c250$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.565863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6b7…7518backed summer bear5c222.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.181010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed summer bear45c220.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc7d…8895backed summer bear45c220.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028252.5%148 W · 134 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a83…0be8backed Zero Tenacity70c210.08$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.95545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed summer bear28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5629550.2%148 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear27c180.23$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.781,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked summer bear32c160$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5131052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Zero Tenacity58c158.91$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7420442.2%86 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed summer bear13c154.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3278516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x9f42…1f72backed Zero Tenacity60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6031865.1%207 W · 111 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Zero Tenacity51c137.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2554648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bd1…ed4bbacked summer bear46c104.16$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.912245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Zero Tenacity77c101.08$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2535960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed summer bear40c100.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0147548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec9…1873backed summer bear19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1919839.4%78 W · 120 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed summer bear30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Zero Tenacity58c98.28$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2873554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Zero Tenacity60c72.67$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.871,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Zero Tenacity80c71.68$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5718661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Zero Tenacity64c68.34$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.981345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed summer bear34c58.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.97659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed summer bear45c43.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4428252.1%147 W · 135 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked summer bear34c41.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3514848%71 W · 77 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed summer bear44c40.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.838759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Zero Tenacity57c34.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8938244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Zero Tenacity58c34.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5419449%95 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Zero Tenacity68c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6429466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Zero Tenacity66c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.58847.7%42 W · 46 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Zero Tenacity58c20.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7142639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b23…331cbacked Zero Tenacity75c19.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9611169.4%77 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.