TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Tundra Esports, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,094 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Team Falcons66c29,412$19,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0001361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+57.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Tundra Esports34c18,588$6,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,319.812839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Tundra Esports34c10,175$3,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,410.2455751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Team Falcons68c8,978$6,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,912.1139936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Tundra Esports34c6,662$2,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,265.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Tundra Esports27c4,445$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.0210661.3%65 W · 41 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3717…7453backed Tundra Esports34c4,162$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Tundra Esports32c3,111$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.048845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1034…b26dbacked Tundra Esports49c3,055$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5007146.5%33 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ea…6254backed Tundra Esports60c2,700$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,616.953748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Tundra Esports31c1,981$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.06944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fdf…ec4bbacked Team Falcons64c1,757$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.535653.6%30 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Tundra Esports31c1,628$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.656350.8%32 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons64c1,249$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.8961057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked Tundra Esports25c1,245$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.4528050%140 W · 140 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4a3…b4a0backed Team Falcons63c1,126$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.754100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Tundra Esports38c1,100$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.9985851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22f0…0975backed Team Falcons76c1,097$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.211154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Tundra Esports36c1,085$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.6119943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Tundra Esports31c955.78$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.9662841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports19c881.55$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.191,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…cfbabacked Team Falcons66c752.77$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.99966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Tundra Esports31c702.4$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.7336442.3%154 W · 210 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccb8…7502backed Tundra Esports41c450$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d28…9b1cbacked Team Falcons45c420$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.61050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed Tundra Esports17c414.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7022033.6%74 W · 146 L-0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf87a…82f7backed Tundra Esports38c400.17$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.06666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+46.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Tundra Esports35c398$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.380544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c6d…a10cbacked Tundra Esports23c366.91$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6840%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Falcons54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13864149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d8…b150backed Tundra Esports19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb943…b538backed Team Falcons63c260$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.21675%12 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+35.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed Team Falcons73c243$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.538265.9%54 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xede0…9117backed Tundra Esports40c226.67$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd750…494dbacked Team Falcons66c212.12$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.121040%4 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Tundra Esports30c211.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9662650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6d…9e45backed Team Falcons61c210$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb027…888fbacked Team Falcons62c207.74$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.942020%4 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-59.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Tundra Esports14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.666848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec41…1134backed Tundra Esports27c200$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.315854.4%86 W · 72 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Tundra Esports18c185$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.387645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Tundra Esports34c157.63$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7577941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Tundra Esports34c156.31$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539126.4%24 W · 67 L-9.8wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-32.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x747b…e60abacked Tundra Esports32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c61…470fbacked Tundra Esports23c151.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359544.2%42 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d99…3d7dbacked Tundra Esports27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.51414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-44.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons52c143.48$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.580742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…e8b1backed Team Falcons69c139.29$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.185540%22 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe102…7eabbacked Tundra Esports15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdca0…140ebacked Team Falcons64c125$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x151f…807dbacked Tundra Esports18c122.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.075145.1%23 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Tundra Esports58c119.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.659250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea8…629ebacked Tundra Esports18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ae3…9f4bbacked Tundra Esports39c105.56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b79…b838backed Team Falcons74c93$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.441931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68d7…1c0bbacked Team Falcons67c90.3$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1266…e3babacked Team Falcons64c86.2$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd812…b882backed Team Falcons79c85.33$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Tundra Esports39c84.66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6289440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Tundra Esports22c82.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.876169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c2…9646backed Team Falcons61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed Team Falcons65c76.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.923464.7%22 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Falcons66c76.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0541864.1%268 W · 150 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ed…a8e9backed Team Falcons59c75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa916…59a5backed Team Falcons69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.46966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Team Falcons69c65.22$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.228751.7%45 W · 42 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97c1…dc80backed Team Falcons66c64.53$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+86.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1314…1c80backed Team Falcons64c62.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked Tundra Esports34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.44238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb708…354ebacked Team Falcons66c55.23$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d0…30f0backed Team Falcons74c51.7$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc647…2f03backed Tundra Esports24c50.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x624d…4322backed Team Falcons58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+78.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac00…99d6backed Tundra Esports26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…0b03backed Tundra Esports32c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151020%2 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-68.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd2df…e80bbacked Team Falcons65c45.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39ea…5e83backed Team Falcons74c42.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc540…7b0cbacked Team Falcons64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+63.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x091e…3432backed Team Falcons80c34.15$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9311452.6%60 W · 54 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c71…917bbacked Team Falcons77c27.44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.441070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60e…3f04backed Team Falcons64c25.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.276660.6%40 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Team Falcons55c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.921847.2%103 W · 115 L+16.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b04…6632backed Team Falcons70c18.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.552733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe936…8944backed Team Falcons67c17.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.821190.9%10 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick74cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.