World Politics · resolved market
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25d2d5cd98960e185aa3c638f37e8d1e902598eff20a180da62533a470c78922
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 3c | 2,282$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 6c | 1,280$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 9c | 1,088$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…269bbacked No | 6c | 1,016$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 639.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 11c | 614$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 3c | 612.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b0…fa28backed No | 4c | 427.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009f…f7abbacked No | 4c | 405$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…e458backed No | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 29cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked No | 10c | 400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 4c | 365.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 7c | 363.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 3c | 348$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 64c | 296.32$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 4c | 290$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 7c | 275$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…7b11backed No | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 5c | 201.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 9c | 198.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 29c | 149.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 11c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 12c | 129$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 13c | 114.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 11c | 106.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 12c | 88.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 21c | 87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 73c | 14.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?this page
- Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.