Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25f4c0c3e213d190c9a0e05a041de39402e9e8484d13338f18ffbb6208125e46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 7c | 1,095$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 823.17$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 499.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 399.94$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 350.05$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 330.26$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 40c | 312.93$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.33 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 41c | 249.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 63c | 200.76$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.35 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 192.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 178.92$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 170.69$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 35c | 157.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 146.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 135$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 29c | 132$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.18 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 37c | 123.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 73c | 122.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 60c | 118.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 116.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 34c | 111.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e9…8070backed No | 16c | 110.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 35c | 104.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 60c | 102.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 69c | 102.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 16c | 101.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…5c70backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 95.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 95.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 74c | 94.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 55c | 90.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 34c | 76.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 50c | 70.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 69c | 70.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 76c | 63.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 63.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…a2e4backed Yes | 34c | 54.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 51.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 44c | 49.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 22c | 48.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 33c | 47.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 47.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 65c | 46.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 75c | 44.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 37c | 42.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 62c | 42.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 39c | 42.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 40.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 36.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 52c | 35.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 34.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 33.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 44c | 33.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 60c | 33.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 40c | 32.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 36c | 32.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 67c | 31.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 36c | 30.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 61c | 30.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…8ed9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 66c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 69c | 29.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 44c | 28.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 71c | 28.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 74c | 28.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 66c | 26.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 65c | 25.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…8633backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 21.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…7455backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 70c | 19.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…fa69backed No | 54c | 19.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…b048backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f30…de1dbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 15.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.