MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26242d09fe5b794b21edceb5f7d82c60042f54fd3dab08e19e79c8fc47507781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 50c | 111,523$55,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,023.93 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 68,848$37,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,075.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 12,847$5,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,490.67 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 35c | 9,742$3,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,392.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 5,472$3,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,331.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 54c | 5,030$2,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,710.24 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 53c | 2,010$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.15 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…694fbacked Over | 76c | 1,976$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.19 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 60c | 1,327$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.92 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -13.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…e11cbacked Under | 45c | 1,109$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.09 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 46c | 1,080$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.54 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 56c | 829$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.37 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…118fbacked Over | 68c | 749.89$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.27 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 35c | 588$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 61c | 489.77$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.01 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 452.53$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.89 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 387.56$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.87 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 62c | 369.51$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.7 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 58c | 300$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Over | 62c | 300$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 61c | 244.54$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.17 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 61c | 244.54$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.17 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 40c | 223.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.07 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 25c | 185.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 48c | 176.79$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked Over | 38c | 173.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 61c | 110.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Over | 62c | 107.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 41c | 103.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…9bbabacked Under | 48c | 99.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 31c | 98.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 35c | 95.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 52c | 90.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 18c | 85.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…75b7backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 56c | 73.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 52c | 62.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Over | 63c | 54.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…8c45backed Over | 55c | 54.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 53c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed Over | 43c | 52.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 62c | 51.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 55c | 48.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed Over | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 31c | 37.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160c…473ebacked Under | 29c | 37.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 58c | 37.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 37c | 28.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 46c | 27.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Over | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 59c | 23.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 47c | 23.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…feccbacked Over | 48c | 23.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Over | 53c | 22.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 48c | 21.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…47f5backed Over | 58c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed Over | 61c | 19.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Over | 62c | 17.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.