MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca7242389febd5ef135b9489c3fad22b0a22ad7cbb371797e311c569ccaefb88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Over | 56c | 10,715$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,715.18 | 435 | 54%235 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4e…e5b7backed Over | 55c | 10,006$5,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,502.77 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.9wins | +0.39per pick | 47cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 9,320$4,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,194 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489c…2a36backed Under | 45c | 7,851$3,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,532.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 6,180$2,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,746.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 55c | 4,367$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.15 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 55c | 3,941$2,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.45 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 2,479$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.87 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b8babacked Under | 45c | 2,157$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 56c | 1,046$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.09 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Under | 28c | 838.25$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.6 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -13.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…c304backed Over | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 680.11$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.43 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 627.64$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 47c | 521.05$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 7c | 520$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Under | 47c | 489.02$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.55 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Over | 57c | 390$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.7 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 45c | 383.04$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.37 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 46c | 368.84$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.67 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 341.27$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 9c | 336.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 54c | 331.08$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.3 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 70c | 302.3$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked Over | 57c | 267.3$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 239.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 46c | 218.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked Over | 54c | 184.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…63d8backed Over | 55c | 182.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 36c | 176.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 49c | 173.07$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 45c | 143$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…33b5backed Over | 56c | 126.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 119.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc494…543cbacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 46c | 108.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 54c | 97.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 93.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…e7d8backed Over | 57c | 91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 52c | 76.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Over | 55c | 74.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 46c | 67.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 54c | 60.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 67c | 60.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 47c | 60.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…317bbacked Under | 51c | 58.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…40ecbacked Over | 54c | 48.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 120 | 53.3%64 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84e…b520backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 44c | 23.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…2919backed Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.