MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7c972b9c3ccdac35ce4f8e7e4bf763b8be97a113641315670544d5eb3bafc84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 35,096$16,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,458.63 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 20,216$10,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,453.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 45c | 15,565$6,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,620.27 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 3,820$1,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 55c | 3,750$2,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,062.41 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 3,676$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 61c | 2,805$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.83 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -13.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 57c | 2,351$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.07 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 37c | 1,649$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.83 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…e11cbacked Under | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 962$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 773.12$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 44c | 730.41$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.03 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 55c | 585$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.75 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea97…5ac0backed Under | 56c | 574.18$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.54 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked Over | 53c | 552$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 525$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…a142backed Over | 56c | 450$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 53c | 334.75$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.11 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 60c | 328.97$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.96 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 55c | 322$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.69 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 56c | 319$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 56c | 173$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 132.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…e7d8backed Over | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…118fbacked Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 16c | 86.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 54c | 76.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 70c | 76.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 66c | 74.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Over | 53c | 73.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 40c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 52c | 65.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 38c | 65.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked Over | 55c | 55.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 22c | 53.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 57c | 48.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 54c | 47.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 45c | 46.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 56c | 44.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 66c | 43.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…317bbacked Under | 40c | 37.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 48c | 25.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 52c | 23.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.