MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8028bc767c1c54098e2cfad77edcee17cade61e0cd6b6c6e08aff3a7085a9fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 6,833$2,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,543.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 5,982$3,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.42 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 5,392$2,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,857.7 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22b…3525backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 3,869$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.31 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.24per pick | 45cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 3,615$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 15c | 1,955$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.22 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 1,738$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.15 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 1,139$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.82 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…418abacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 984.02$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 536.48$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.44 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 520.65$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.41 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 16c | 457.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 390$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.7 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Washington Nationals | 22c | 380$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 378.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.86 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 338.42$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.6 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 16c | 336.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 292.4$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.97 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 278.42$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 9c | 273.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 244.96$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7b…a65cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 240$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 235$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 216.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.91 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 212.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 206.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…2e90backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 185.21$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ae…3a89backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 181.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 15c | 171.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 152.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 113.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Washington Nationals | 17c | 104.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Washington Nationals | 31c | 102.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Washington Nationals | 19c | 101.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a166backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 79.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Washington Nationals | 20c | 57.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 56.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 56.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Washington Nationals | 19c | 55.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 47.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…3315backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 44.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 29.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 25.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.