MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26b2bfd6e51b3e1419f9e2551ef0eda3fb1f3c7b127f1f643d3651fa097ebeaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 17,169$8,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,641.62 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 49c | 10,155$4,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,179.24 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 4,573$2,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960.03 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 48c | 1,666$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.32 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.83 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Under | 52c | 1,554$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.29 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 51c | 1,553$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.76 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Over | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485 | 108 | 5.6%6 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 1,024$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.6 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 870.07$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.04 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 48c | 624.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.99 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 597.43$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.05 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 419.79$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.29 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 313.62$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.08 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 280.65$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 276.78$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.96 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 51c | 254$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.54 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 26c | 192.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.94 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 55c | 174.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 53c | 156$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 48c | 122.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 51c | 119.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 45c | 108.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 45c | 108.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb3…a0fdbacked Under | 48c | 103.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 49c | 103$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 53c | 99.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 48c | 81.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked Over | 49c | 77.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Over | 49c | 73.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…ad51backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 37c | 66.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 39c | 63.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 29c | 60.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Under | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…ce0fbacked Under | 51c | 58.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 67c | 52.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 67c | 52.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Over | 52c | 47.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…3419backed Over | 51c | 39.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Under | 77c | 39.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 29c | 35.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 43c | 32.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 69c | 30.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 68c | 29.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…5f36backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 73c | 28.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Under | 52c | 27.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 49c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Under | 52c | 23.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 22.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 74c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.