TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Cincinnati Open: Elise Mertens vs Diane Parry

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Diane Parryof Elise Mertens, Diane Parry
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$188,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$208,569

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,772 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Elise Mertens44c22,874$10,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,062.319,16136.1%3,309 W · 5,852 L-202.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Diane Parry21c15,992$3,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,554.6244832.1%144 W · 304 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5c…5df7backed Elise Mertens77c12,811$9,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,864.317948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Diane Parry24c8,865$2,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,737.4621944.3%97 W · 122 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bfe…2d74backed Elise Mertens76c8,787$6,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,678.168466.7%56 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3663…8950backed Elise Mertens46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30039443.1%170 W · 224 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Elise Mertens53c3,955$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.7711,77943.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L+20.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Elise Mertens50c3,503$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75155141.2%227 W · 324 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa77…15a5backed Elise Mertens59c3,282$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.3935557.5%204 W · 151 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Elise Mertens76c2,492$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.961,69450.5%856 W · 838 L+13.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Diane Parry18c2,004$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.284,99238.6%1,927 W · 3,065 L-19.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Diane Parry26c1,780$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.3644049.1%216 W · 224 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Diane Parry18c1,703$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.118,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d91…40d3backed Diane Parry25c1,547$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.1648730.8%150 W · 337 L+2.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fe…211ebacked Diane Parry15c1,294$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.711118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid+21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Diane Parry24c1,039$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.912,49251.3%1,279 W · 1,213 L+15.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…732ebacked Diane Parry50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50035754.1%193 W · 164 L+16.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Diane Parry27c918.51$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.618,83442.5%3,758 W · 5,076 L-169.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Diane Parry56c910.71$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.7135850.6%181 W · 177 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Diane Parry21c901.69$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.1274838.8%290 W · 458 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd335…fe54backed Diane Parry12c833.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.3312733.1%42 W · 85 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Diane Parry24c794$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.443,35948.5%1,630 W · 1,729 L-49.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Elise Mertens49c782.67$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.752,85947.1%1,348 W · 1,511 L+37.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Elise Mertens75c775.41$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.551,71148.5%829 W · 882 L+41.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Diane Parry15c750$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.51,44928.4%412 W · 1,037 L+2.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Elise Mertens74c749.98$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.0457144.1%252 W · 319 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x191f…f09ebacked Diane Parry61c727.87$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.8722345.7%102 W · 121 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Diane Parry54c690.06$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.433,73145.3%1,690 W · 2,041 L-3.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Diane Parry49c667$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.171,42442.8%610 W · 814 L-32.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Elise Mertens39c649.84$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.752,07846.7%970 W · 1,108 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a92…a42dbacked Elise Mertens50c643$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.52343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8101…663ebacked Diane Parry12c625$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5508731%27 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d98…fe98backed Diane Parry12c625$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55016234%55 W · 107 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Diane Parry36c571.07$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.121,07357.6%618 W · 455 L+4.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Elise Mertens53c563.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,67553.1%889 W · 786 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Elise Mertens59c490.88$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.460521.7%131 W · 474 L+2.8wins0.00per pick21cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Elise Mertens63c489.88$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.251,78946.3%828 W · 961 L-6.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Diane Parry45c472.87$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.526,64946.3%3,079 W · 3,570 L-38.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Diane Parry14c432.3$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.785,04141.4%2,087 W · 2,954 L-83.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda79…9050backed Diane Parry12c416.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.6714330.8%44 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1be7…a6e3backed Elise Mertens52c410.99$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.883836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Diane Parry25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30037038.4%142 W · 228 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb624…3d80backed Diane Parry29c396.72$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.7214439.6%57 W · 87 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe004…d87cbacked Elise Mertens53c376.23$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.415060%90 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Diane Parry20c370.24$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.249526.3%25 W · 70 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98a1…1c2ebacked Diane Parry15c326.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.5613221.2%28 W · 104 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-26.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Diane Parry68c323.56$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.384,62667.8%3,135 W · 1,491 L+310.5wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Elise Mertens48c288.6$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.151,56424%376 W · 1,188 L-43.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Diane Parry25c275.09$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.3119537.4%73 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d1…de26backed Diane Parry24c270.83$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.8327943.4%121 W · 158 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Diane Parry29c266.91$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.5144138.8%171 W · 270 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa63…f061backed Elise Mertens59c265.07$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.397638.2%29 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Diane Parry42c253.92$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.921,31639%513 W · 803 L-23.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2906…555abacked Elise Mertens59c252.19$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508378.3%65 W · 18 L+11.9wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+20.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x98fe…ffa7backed Elise Mertens37c250$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.510348.5%50 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70bb…10d3backed Diane Parry28c242.12$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.3840851.7%211 W · 197 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5da…5fb9backed Diane Parry13c230.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.7713333.8%45 W · 88 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Diane Parry24c208.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.775,35228.8%1,543 W · 3,809 L-21.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf19…8869backed Elise Mertens45c201.16$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5214138.3%54 W · 87 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x293c…dcbabacked Elise Mertens58c199.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11638554.5%210 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Elise Mertens75c199.32$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.491,77149.2%872 W · 899 L+58.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Elise Mertens63c199.15$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12685868.4%587 W · 271 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed Elise Mertens32c178.33$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4554039.6%214 W · 326 L+38.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f69…ec35backed Diane Parry13c167.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.762035%7 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick20cpaid+94.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbbd7…1c4fbacked Diane Parry12c166.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.6716035%56 W · 104 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7e…c45cbacked Diane Parry12c166.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.6713633.8%46 W · 90 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Diane Parry47c156.59$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.861,99152.9%1,053 W · 938 L+31.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9538…96f4backed Diane Parry13c153.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.8512731.5%40 W · 87 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+1.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Diane Parry27c152.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.964426.2%169 W · 475 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Diane Parry42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.530147.5%143 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Diane Parry32c140$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.921,80047.2%849 W · 951 L-45.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Elise Mertens53c138.54$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.711,96043.8%858 W · 1,102 L-20.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Elise Mertens75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10049058%284 W · 206 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d32…25a8backed Diane Parry60c126$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.729966.7%66 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2889…edcfbacked Elise Mertens59c117.03$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0515956.6%90 W · 69 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7db…d23abacked Elise Mertens45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506556.9%37 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedb8…b855backed Diane Parry13c108.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2910039%39 W · 61 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc611…cc2ebacked Diane Parry27c105.27$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1210752.3%56 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Diane Parry52c102.63$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.681,49643.6%652 W · 844 L-29.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c7…d291backed Elise Mertens49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010945.9%50 W · 59 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x865a…4f00backed Diane Parry12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888226.8%22 W · 60 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Diane Parry25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752,05347.8%982 W · 1,071 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Diane Parry17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8344429.7%132 W · 312 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfaa…28f7backed Diane Parry25c99.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9995745.6%436 W · 521 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…6232backed Diane Parry24c99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9616248.1%78 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Diane Parry29c97.25$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0532042.8%137 W · 183 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x588b…ed16backed Diane Parry52c95.73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.735657.1%32 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb3…f5b0backed Elise Mertens16c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.448257.1%275 W · 207 L+31.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Diane Parry52c88.25$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.363,27940.3%1,322 W · 1,957 L+24.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Elise Mertens63c85.88$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.273,19557.3%1,830 W · 1,365 L+178.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Diane Parry59c85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.81,07954.9%592 W · 487 L+14.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Diane Parry33c82.19$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4648947.4%232 W · 257 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ae…9ff0backed Diane Parry13c80.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.46124.6%15 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Diane Parry36c79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5632149.2%158 W · 163 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Diane Parry54c79$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.991,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05b2…953bbacked Elise Mertens76c79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.045248.1%25 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Diane Parry21c78.27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7737138.8%144 W · 227 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Elise Mertens75c75.95$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.964,37652.3%2,290 W · 2,086 L+67.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Diane Parry17c70.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.991,98146.2%916 W · 1,065 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Diane Parry51c69.21$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.775,55348.6%2,700 W · 2,853 L+16.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.