Premier League · resolved market
Will Brighton vs. Southampton end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27423fc8f03dac8daa9548f0a706c1409ce720a3db01a1e88ef0ca8a41346e7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 63c | 17,835$11,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,270.69 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 40c | 13,467$5,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,080.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 37c | 1,853$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.51 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 29c | 1,520$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.39 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 16c | 879.34$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.64 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 38c | 793.78$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.29 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…f897backed Yes | 63c | 701.31$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…f9c5backed Yes | 75c | 533.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…16b0backed Yes | 15c | 533.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 55c | 491.92$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.69 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Yes | 17c | 311.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 18c | 305.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.56 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…f8f6backed Yes | 57c | 292.56$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 78c | 257.31$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 16c | 255$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.65 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cfe5backed Yes | 18c | 222.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed Yes | 17c | 163.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.53 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 17c | 151.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.95 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 19c | 142.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…56d5backed Yes | 80c | 117.69$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66db…7afbbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +158.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 75c | 58.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…956fbacked Yes | 72c | 50.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…4571backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 27c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…3cf0backed Yes | 68c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brighton vs. Southampton end in a draw?this page
- Will Brighton win on 2024-11-29?No won
- Will Southampton win on 2024-11-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.