Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x281de6dc19642f8d5de6657615ef30f31d8fd010a1ddfe822dc8559e0c39b140
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 567.89$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 382.45$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 233.29$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 47c | 229$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 40c | 227$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked Yes | 42c | 220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 204.04$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 54c | 157.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 13c | 144.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 53c | 139.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 53c | 129$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 121.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 109.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 105.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 105$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 43c | 104.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 95.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 44c | 85.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 64c | 77.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 58c | 76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 44c | 71.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 64.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 61.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 45c | 55.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 42c | 52.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 52.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 50.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 45.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 45.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 46c | 45.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 45.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 43.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 25c | 40.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 39.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 44c | 39.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 53c | 37.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 47c | 37.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 37c | 36.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 42c | 35.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 56c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 44c | 32.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 36c | 32.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b7…239fbacked Yes | 40c | 27.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 26.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 48c | 24.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 45c | 23.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 57c | 21.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 17.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 79c | 16.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.