Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Brighton end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28359ff8100af174db462b8842803e932b96f6f06c43239f6f2ab1627f5c6107
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 60c | 1,983$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.32 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 29c | 1,740$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 71c | 1,156$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.87 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 2c | 999.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 73c | 625.34$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.29 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 27c | 599.97$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 25c | 549.72$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.89 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 433.21$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…026abacked No | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3025…fccdbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 64c | 369.65$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.7 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 27c | 368.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 72c | 308.01$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 561 | 58.6%329 W · 232 L | +29.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 66c | 303.47$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e9…1248backed Yes | 30c | 268.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…8949backed Yes | 40c | 231.04$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac26…20f9backed Yes | 27c | 202.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Yes | 29c | 192.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Yes | 28c | 192.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…3d88backed Yes | 29c | 175.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked No | 73c | 169.97$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 73c | 164$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1357…7553backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…f263backed Yes | 31c | 113.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…d062backed No | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 211 | 53.1%112 W · 99 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…53c8backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 19c | 96.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0c…6565backed Yes | 28c | 87.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…8f26backed Yes | 32c | 77.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…062cbacked No | 75c | 72.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 52c | 71.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…81e6backed No | 72c | 71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc792…28bbbacked No | 74c | 70.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes | 33c | 67.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 73c | 63.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5802…c68bbacked No | 75c | 60.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 76c | 54.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…b31ebacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…8058backed Yes | 40c | 50.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 160 | 60%96 W · 64 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed Yes | 38c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…07f5backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 109 | 32.1%35 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 71c | 23.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Brighton end in a draw?this page
- Will Brighton win on 2025-01-19?Yes won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.