NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-19.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2853bfff46ac03951e2dfdf744738b068ed2d6d241d391da82ec210e905ffb9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x033d…fd1ebacked Wizards | 39c | 100,000$39,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,999.77 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Trail Blazers | 75c | 50,000$37,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,500 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 18,966$8,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,437.86 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 11,836$5,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,916.21 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 7,857$3,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,095.64 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Wizards | 41c | 5,021$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.46 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 4,731$2,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.38 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Trail Blazers | 74c | 2,404$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 1,846$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.27 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 1,800$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.86 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 1,302$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.32 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 1,049$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.86 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 1,022$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.22 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers | 46c | 756$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.48 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 588.2$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.66 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 253.87$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.51 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 222$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 124$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 102.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 99.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Wizards | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 53.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 50.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…8105backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 48.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Wizards | 49c | 44.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x321a…76c9backed Wizards | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…f0c4backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 39.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-19.5)this page
- Bilal Coulibaly: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Donovan Clingan: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-15.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-20.5)Trail Blazers won
- Wizards vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Wizards vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Wizards vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 213.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.