TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tearlaments (BO1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Tearlaments
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,667
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,330

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,667 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed Tearlaments29c5,028$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.9414840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Tearlaments25c4,876$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.3145139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Tearlaments30c4,115$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.6617950.3%90 W · 89 L+14.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Tearlaments50c3,895$1,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.642,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x527e…5fe4backed Tearlaments1c2,605$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Natus Vincere74c2,556$1,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.3612459.7%74 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Tearlaments21c2,466$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.798253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Tearlaments4c2,296$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick33cpaid-87.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed Natus Vincere61c2,000$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7902560%15 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked Natus Vincere79c1,519$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.9915852.5%83 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Tearlaments22c1,494$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.739936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed Natus Vincere71c1,373$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.346261.3%38 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7b…c33ebacked Natus Vincere77c1,278$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Natus Vincere80c1,221$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.1420159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Tearlaments24c1,200$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.5249133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Tearlaments24c1,167$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28019743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e5…b254backed Natus Vincere56c1,016$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.313100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Tearlaments10c968.16$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.68627.9%24 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Natus Vincere75c959.38$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.3823465%152 W · 82 L-1.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Tearlaments28c942.6$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.5314537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe08e…1d61backed Natus Vincere78c940.96$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.364678.3%36 W · 10 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere78c897$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.3461057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Tearlaments25c810.98$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1425348.6%123 W · 130 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed Tearlaments39c803.56$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.9222033.6%74 W · 146 L-0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Tearlaments16c780.18$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0322647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc631…9655backed Tearlaments22c700$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc7c…d9d7backed Natus Vincere71c676$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1949750.5%49 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Tearlaments30c675.42$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20054445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Tearlaments35c671.99$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.5862841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x983d…933fbacked Natus Vincere59c641.24$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.242441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe48…5895backed Natus Vincere78c624.48$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4812147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe760…6866backed Natus Vincere26c612.98$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+91.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8bb…de25backed Tearlaments23c570.73$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.56850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere78c565.77$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.0547660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Natus Vincere74c544.57$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.5741655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Natus Vincere76c526.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.322576%19 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd718…aa13backed Natus Vincere49c524.97$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.862240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-40%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Natus Vincere78c512.82$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8212050.8%61 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8942…9ea9backed Natus Vincere69c511.22$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.986943.5%30 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20a5…de1bbacked Tearlaments26c499.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1305358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Tearlaments22c499.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1108037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Tearlaments20c476.3$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.262740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+36%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed Tearlaments30c475$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.510745.8%49 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Natus Vincere70c473.49$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.0746451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Tearlaments23c460.81$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9513346.6%62 W · 71 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Natus Vincere72c460$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.231545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Natus Vincere75c460$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11711855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb04…d8b5backed Tearlaments9c449.07$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.672528%7 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Tearlaments23c400$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7564123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc8f…092ebacked Natus Vincere78c395.51$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.381968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Natus Vincere78c385.36$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3620452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Tearlaments24c335.25$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4656848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Tearlaments29c335$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.459054.4%49 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Natus Vincere76c322.99$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.525078%39 W · 11 L+7.4wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+20.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Natus Vincere79c318.2$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.24573.3%33 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a68…6525backed Tearlaments17c310.71$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.02922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Natus Vincere78c301.28$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2810560%63 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Tearlaments27c300.59$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.634443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882c…a26fbacked Natus Vincere76c300$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.85756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2011…f296backed Natus Vincere77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4656…93afbacked Natus Vincere45c288.06$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd781…92a0backed Natus Vincere61c278.69$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.691533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Natus Vincere67c275.89$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7118075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Tearlaments22c267.77$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.356169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718a…5d86backed Natus Vincere76c264$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.361866.7%12 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked Natus Vincere77c261.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0112868%87 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc269…8d0ebacked Natus Vincere60c251.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Tearlaments24c250.08$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.991,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Natus Vincere77c220.66$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6591356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Tearlaments31c219.8$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5686949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Tearlaments18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3659250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed Tearlaments25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Tearlaments47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.461315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-55.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb10…b134backed Tearlaments20c198.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-49.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed Tearlaments13c190$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2624026.7%64 W · 176 L-30.5wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Tearlaments20c180$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.411943.7%52 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Tearlaments22c180$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.62020%4 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-48.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Natus Vincere43c175.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7416835.7%60 W · 108 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Tearlaments23c153.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.274438.6%17 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere75c150.86$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2989749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tearlaments23c131.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.760542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x871c…7f0abacked Natus Vincere76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.586068.3%41 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Natus Vincere77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8710659.4%63 W · 43 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4f2…3263backed Natus Vincere78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.216175.4%46 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed Tearlaments17c125.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.862142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Tearlaments20c122.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.825538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x408a…6b19backed Natus Vincere67c121.18$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.791275%9 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Tearlaments27c120.01$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6336442.3%154 W · 210 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3647…6250backed Tearlaments34c117.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf90c…f49cbacked Natus Vincere77c117.59$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.592792.6%25 W · 2 L+6.5wins+0.24per pick69cpaid+36.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9e08…3d14backed Natus Vincere58c110.34$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.343855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Natus Vincere57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432080%16 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7b0…6960backed Tearlaments29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298055%44 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…3964backed Natus Vincere75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2512755.1%70 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed Tearlaments22c81.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1827548%132 W · 143 L-1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe169…449fbacked Tearlaments19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Tearlaments20c77.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5414948.3%72 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac7f…361fbacked Tearlaments26c77.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-52.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Tearlaments27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050444%222 W · 282 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Natus Vincere77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.943951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.