Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2908d4625a6290f5504473a7365dff5311f3fdc95b7730db12c8c1105bc8a825
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 60c | 11,240$6,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,691.7 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 31c | 6,834$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,725.29 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 57c | 4,863$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,078.17 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 61c | 3,936$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.28 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 59c | 3,050$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.12 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 1c | 2,728$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11cd…e5a8backed Yes | 33c | 1,557$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 26c | 1,507$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.41 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…01cdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…7248backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 68c | 999.99$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.84 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 76c | 999.98$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 78c | 969.88$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa8…4de1backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 70c | 467.93$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.81 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 426.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 25c | 360$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 57c | 326.47$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed No | 76c | 302.5$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Yes | 60c | 294.18$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.34 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 260.14$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…7a2cbacked Yes | 40c | 240.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 76c | 210.63$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 17c | 177.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.82 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…a427backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…2a77backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 36c | 151.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 15c | 130$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…1fbbbacked No | 70c | 127$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 10c | 124.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4da5…d7b9backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked Yes | 13c | 111.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 110.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…486dbacked Yes | 53c | 108.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 29c | 107.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7812…4bcdbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 54c | 95.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 31c | 86.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked Yes | 49c | 78.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 60c | 76.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 23c | 75.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 74.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 29c | 71.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 33c | 68.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 61c | 67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 59c | 65.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 78c | 64.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 80 | 70%56 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 24c | 51.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9f62backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 70c | 49.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…2101backed Yes | 74c | 43.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 37.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…d1a7backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 59c | 33.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Yes | 58c | 32.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a881backed No | 75c | 30.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…b518backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed No | 67c | 27.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9347…3674backed Yes | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 77c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Yes | 46c | 23.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +10.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…c449backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed No | 49c | 20.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2a1fbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bde…ecbabacked Yes | 56c | 18.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed No | 76c | 14.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-08-20?Yes won
- Will Mjällby AIF win on 2026-08-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.