TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BALU vs Invision - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Invisionof BALU, Invision
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,059
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,059 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2146…d41bbacked BALU48c11,736$5,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,651.6589741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed BALU0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10712.8%2 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-90.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Invision42c7,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,059.9847646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Invision42c5,581$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,211.2332549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x81c3…d67dbacked Invision73c4,776$3,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.147045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked BALU60c4,020$2,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,422.8379859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc827…ff0fbacked BALU1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ab…cdafbacked BALU1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked BALU56c2,435$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.6395342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc11…4b4abacked BALU1c2,400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Invision24c2,088$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.7480256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc93…718bbacked BALU1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Invision46c1,971$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.951,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Invision51c1,755$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.2950353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Invision46c1,554$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.510961.5%67 W · 42 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5f48…ba84backed Invision78c1,507$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.141291.7%11 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick70cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4cd2…4cb9backed BALU1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked BALU23c1,489$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.6432548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Invision51c1,391$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.151,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Invision45c1,341$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.1896557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed BALU48c1,324$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.2712350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Invision44c1,136$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.8748053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed BALU58c1,127$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.722948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa5…4859backed BALU58c1,025$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.712347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x615d…bd5bbacked BALU58c1,025$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.562857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed BALU41c900$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked BALU58c893.93$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.4810551.4%54 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed BALU5c874.79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.83323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Invision55c834.3$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.8871143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed Invision46c654.48$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.4815050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Invision43c624.68$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.931,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Invision27c551.42$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.7261456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed BALU47c519.52$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.2527636.2%100 W · 176 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed BALU58c511.71$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.7914048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed BALU3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed BALU42c495.94$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.4719440.7%79 W · 115 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked Invision61c478.48$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.6117965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked BALU55c472.27$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.371,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked BALU42c463.51$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.922240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Invision38c435.99$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.3113941.7%58 W · 81 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd206…bd2abacked BALU53c410.09$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.1715957.2%91 W · 68 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Invision76c409.43$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2614655.5%81 W · 65 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed BALU55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203528.6%10 W · 25 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-45.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1d42…cde0backed BALU57c400$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2285038%19 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed Invision63c398.91$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.5912548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Invision68c382.39$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5248057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked BALU19c336$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7379341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd22a…2a00backed BALU58c301.11$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.643050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Invision44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.426247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed BALU48c300$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.7662841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed Invision61c298.15$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2811154.1%60 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Invision43c291$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.1964547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked BALU58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14540442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed BALU65c245.64$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4619249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Invision27c243.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.1511753%62 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa599…5230backed Invision26c231.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.119156%51 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed BALU25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1d…2b19backed BALU11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226759.7%40 W · 27 L+11.3wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+32.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed BALU67c196.66$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3358943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Invision28c196.32$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.420820.7%43 W · 165 L-18.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked Invision31c194.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7211758.1%68 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Invision26c193.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8425359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf7d…a286backed BALU59c182.83$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.872433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BALU45c165.4$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.191,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked BALU53c155.96$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2430844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked Invision70c155.34$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0431052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1025…fbfabacked Invision28c151.96$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.8830255.3%167 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f5…2035backed Invision75c150$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.533265.4%217 W · 115 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Invision52c143.3$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7821158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked BALU65c142.26$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4630146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5f…6ee5backed BALU59c136.23$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.784944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked BALU67c136$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7358746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked BALU52c128.13$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.636845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed BALU57c127.67$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6713145%59 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked BALU67c123$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2544049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Invision74c120$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2513647.1%64 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked BALU64c115.55$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3656945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed BALU32c115.01$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3550247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Invision47c109.04$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7938759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked BALU60c108.06$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3961449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked Invision44c107.07$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9633854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed Invision77c103.5$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6442660.1%256 W · 170 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed BALU45c98.21$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5481345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Invision56c95.53$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.711,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Invision52c94.23$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2314856.8%84 W · 64 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BALU26c90.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.741,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked BALU24c90.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.433441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb4d…d388backed Invision39c90$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.59645.8%44 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Invision40c88.08$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.852,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd439…21d3backed BALU58c86.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5031644.9%142 W · 174 L-18.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked Invision47c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.46136.1%22 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe79f…0204backed BALU60c80$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Invision41c79.06$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6466848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed BALU74c78.61$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1719458.8%114 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe61a…292dbacked Invision27c72.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7222558.2%131 W · 94 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe489…8804backed Invision29c70$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.814349%70 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c8…a25cbacked BALU40c69.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.85666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed BALU72c68.57$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4217249.4%85 W · 87 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd2…87f4backed BALU41c67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.478657%49 W · 37 L+13.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+32.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Invision40c65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.210741.1%44 W · 63 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.