Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: BALU vs Invision - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73dc0f479db8a43380d0fba7d416d222228777dc9a90941cb9bba9deeb2bd5c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BALUof BALU, Invision
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked BALU | 56c | 2,370$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.64 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Invision | 25c | 1,800$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.62 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Invision | 3c | 1,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Invision | 32c | 1,081$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.65 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked BALU | 77c | 1,014$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.67 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…7ecfbacked Invision | 16c | 989.18$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…f081backed Invision | 26c | 895$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.78 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Invision | 43c | 806.93$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked BALU | 63c | 674.79$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.67 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1a89backed Invision | 35c | 651.08$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Invision | 44c | 548.25$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.23 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Invision | 20c | 547.81$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed Invision | 7c | 505.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…698cbacked BALU | 69c | 502.19$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.88 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed BALU | 69c | 432.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.08 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Invision | 44c | 380$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.75 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed BALU | 66c | 375.72$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.01 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked BALU | 67c | 367.18$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked BALU | 66c | 357.54$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Invision | 44c | 340$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Invision | 36c | 278.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed BALU | 73c | 274.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked BALU | 61c | 266$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Invision | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed BALU | 66c | 234.34$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked Invision | 40c | 216.25$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked BALU | 72c | 166.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed BALU | 64c | 156.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…4bd3backed BALU | 78c | 152.12$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 25 | 96%24 W · 1 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 73cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Invision | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 208 | 20.7%43 W · 165 L | -18.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Invision | 26c | 137.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked BALU | 67c | 130.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked Invision | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf991…3965backed Invision | 35c | 120.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Invision | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Invision | 36c | 111.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed BALU | 63c | 101.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 217 | 69.1%150 W · 67 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed BALU | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Invision | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Invision | 19c | 95.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Invision | 23c | 92.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed BALU | 54c | 89.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Invision | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked BALU | 79c | 71.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…9eb8backed Invision | 26c | 69.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked BALU | 72c | 68.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Invision | 16c | 67.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…67e6backed BALU | 72c | 65.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked BALU | 61c | 62.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Invision | 45c | 62.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…88e5backed Invision | 46c | 61.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked BALU | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed BALU | 61c | 58.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked BALU | 75c | 50.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…44a0backed BALU | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked BALU | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed BALU | 66c | 49.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Invision | 25c | 46.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…0d8abacked Invision | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…a552backed BALU | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Invision | 33c | 40.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Invision | 46c | 35.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ee…01aebacked BALU | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…f718backed BALU | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Invision | 42c | 31.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 282 | 52.1%147 W · 135 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…4cdfbacked Invision | 38c | 28.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf461…9ef2backed BALU | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked BALU | 77c | 24.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…1a64backed BALU | 80c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked BALU | 60c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c0e6backed BALU | 74c | 18.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 222 | 59%131 W · 91 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed BALU | 73c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: BALU vs Invision - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: BALU vs Invision (BO3) - European Pro League Group BInvision won
- Dota 2: BALU vs Invision - Game 1 WinnerInvision won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.