Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a0171e12f16421c9dd6cdf7608232da214ae51fa84d9a56e3f7284a33d68cab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 2,748$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.44 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 56c | 1,250$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.91 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 532.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 497.49$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 39c | 420$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.04 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 19c | 386.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 44c | 352.72$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.22 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 62c | 350$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 336.51$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 38c | 273.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed Yes | 38c | 266.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.18 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 250.15$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.06 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 232.39$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 229.14$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 227.35$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 221.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 202$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 41c | 190.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 74c | 175$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 76c | 173.11$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 159.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 145.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 144.68$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 143.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 143.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0f…82f6backed Yes | 44c | 136.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 133$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 132.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 35c | 132.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 42c | 128$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 44c | 127.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…e3e2backed Yes | 44c | 123.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 123.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 37c | 123$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 30c | 121.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 120.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 120$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 119$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…2647backed No | 20c | 114$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 95.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 32c | 94.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 29c | 87.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 34c | 76.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 71.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 33c | 69.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 46c | 64.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 35c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 39c | 61.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 60c | 58.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 70c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…ba17backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 49.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 64c | 46.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 49c | 45.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 44.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 41.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 36c | 39.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 38.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 62c | 35.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 35.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 34.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked No | 73c | 34.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cd…13b6backed Yes | 40c | 33.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 40c | 33.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 35c | 31.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 28.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 57c | 26.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 64c | 25.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 24.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.