TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,352 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes38c2,748$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.441,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92e3…ab49backed No56c1,250$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.917138%27 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes13c532.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.653,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes46c497.49$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.958,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes39c420$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.0456048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes19c386.71$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1749854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes44c352.72$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.221,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No62c350$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13355954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No61c336.51$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.724,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11463255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes38c273.45$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.521,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc29…66b4backed Yes38c266.67$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.185448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No61c250.15$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.062,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No64c232.39$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.063,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c229.14$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.568,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No65c227.35$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.691,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes43c221.22$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.224,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No64c202$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.862,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb1…6644backed Yes38c200$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7513540%54 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes41c190.89$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2733746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfb8…a530backed Yes74c175$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.753231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No76c173.11$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7311169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No59c159.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.61,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes35c145.41$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.149,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No71c144.68$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c143.8$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes27c143.59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.397,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9c0f…82f6backed Yes44c136.37$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No65c133$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.522,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c132.44$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes35c132.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6615051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes42c128$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7625935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes44c127.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7231936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d3…e3e2backed Yes44c123.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4340%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes40c123.07$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.075,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes37c123$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes30c121.18$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7258732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No64c120.18$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.84,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No62c120$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.435,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No65c119$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.161,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad9…2647backed No20c114$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.342913.8%4 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c95.88$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.514,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes32c94.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4899949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes41c90$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.940535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes29c87.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes34c76.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3358152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No66c76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.684,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes37c76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No59c75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.751,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No63c71.06$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No59c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7949551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes33c69.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.219039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes46c64.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.941,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes35c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.352,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes39c61.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.253,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No60c58.48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.392,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes30c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No70c53$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.933350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1826256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x939a…ba17backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1815950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed No70c49.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1518629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No60c49.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.821,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No64c46.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8923666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes49c45.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9319947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No62c44.34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.062,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes35c41.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3942544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes36c41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7649750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.923,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes36c39.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c38.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.789,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c36.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0280050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed No62c35.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6721264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes40c35.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9954335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes39c34.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.331,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x635b…2bdbbacked No73c34.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.132263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cd…13b6backed Yes40c33.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes40c33.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2227130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes35c31.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1546549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.64,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.753855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.122744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.73,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes41c29.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No63c29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.62,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No61c28.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1958358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes41c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4847738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No57c26.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.182,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No64c25.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9542160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.962,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7516453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No64c24.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes55c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.256,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No64c23.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.451,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.