TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,867
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,544

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,867 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes39c2,519$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.8910539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes39c758.45$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.628,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c538.44$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.568,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No61c492.78$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.897152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes46c390.15$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.755,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No61c350$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes46c309.26$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.462,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c276$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.325,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes36c257.82$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.723,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No55c251$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.433,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No61c250$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.536150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes47c249.32$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.161,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No51c241$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9252758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No44c223$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.041,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No59c215.18$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9658152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No62c213.24$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.2610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c163.52$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.049,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No8c159.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.13,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No21c152.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked No59c150$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.59053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No44c143.8$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.675,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes39c142.67$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6714452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No55c139.91$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.951,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No66c137$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.361,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No46c136.21$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.947,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No56c132.97$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.991,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes41c130.37$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0742148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes37c128$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6425935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes73c120.23$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3286847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes67c119.96$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2856048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No63c119.07$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.123666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No57c119$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.411,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No52c118.91$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.874,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No60c118.13$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.882,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes53c108.7$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9540535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes40c102.96$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1615051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No39c102.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.032,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5481848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c95.56$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.264,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes74c92.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.611,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No27c90.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes43c87.56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0375546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c85.51$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.753,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No43c75.63$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.634,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes69c72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3261365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2fa6…f2fbbacked Yes19c62.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.591216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes43c62$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3494552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No66c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.32,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No60c58.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.249551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes44c56.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.982,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No34c54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3633350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No56c53.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.191,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No35c50.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.71,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x998a…745bbacked No60c50.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014252.1%74 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.56046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2970148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x608f…02a8backed No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.852759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x939a…ba17backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0112544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2910147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No66c49.68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.612,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c49.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes37c48.83$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No61c48.11$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.351,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5174…8a39backed Yes43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.511850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No62c46.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4164859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7419…594abacked Yes35c46.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.097925.3%20 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.447540%30 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No36c41.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.862,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes38c41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4249750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.853353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5605…2112backed No62c36.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.782352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No64c36.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.527056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes36c36.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.527130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No52c35.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7538860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes45c35.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.654335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes45c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.125954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes43c34.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.888348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed No39c34.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5718629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes73c34.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.052263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No38c32.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.265353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No32c32.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3349854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes45c32.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.766157.4%35 W · 26 L+9.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.753855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.15,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes42c28.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.251,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes68c28.19$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.892,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd31d…f8bfbacked No57c27.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.98450%42 W · 42 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes40c27.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.294,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No59c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.652,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe775…01d2backed Yes73c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.489646.9%45 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb710…49c3backed No65c23.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.292937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes56c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.662,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbabc…f582backed No52c21.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.955971.2%42 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No61c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8158358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes57c20.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.962,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.