Movies · resolved market
Will 'Wolf Man' opening weekend gross between $16-20m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a377ce93dc6d97ac1ef28f904090a5c7b3644aa359f92a29f7c2b34bb97dbdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 24c | 7,349$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.31 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 12c | 5,537$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.79 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 4,736$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.61 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 4,484$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.8 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…11edbacked Yes | 1c | 4,162$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f4…2460backed Yes | 1c | 3,572$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Yes | 45c | 3,155$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.55 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes | 6c | 2,848$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 30c | 2,583$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.59 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,175$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 31c | 2,047$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 2c | 1,911$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 46c | 1,582$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.95 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 4c | 1,578$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 8c | 1,526$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.84 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 61c | 1,301$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.45 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 7c | 1,203$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,028$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.24 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 75c | 954$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.58 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 12c | 800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 43c | 800$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 15c | 609.68$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 51c | 499.95$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.98 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 498.04$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.83 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 56c | 486$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.16 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 2c | 460.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 49c | 440$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.32 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 44c | 424.05$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 48c | 372.77$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 37c | 285.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 32c | 280$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 7c | 225$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes | 55c | 182.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…025bbacked Yes | 8c | 168.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4a…715dbacked Yes | 51c | 115.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7dc2backed Yes | 51c | 111.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda2…d3d9backed Yes | 48c | 104.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 103.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0f…cd08backed No | 54c | 96.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…693ebacked Yes | 54c | 96.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…c854backed No | 53c | 83.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…4d8fbacked Yes | 25c | 80.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5a…25f3backed No | 52c | 79.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…da88backed No | 48c | 73.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956e…7e2ebacked No | 49c | 73.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4808…ba4dbacked Yes | 53c | 70.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 68.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e74…4934backed Yes | 57c | 67.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf101…d6febacked No | 54c | 65.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a78…f457backed No | 49c | 64.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…6f06backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…faf9backed Yes | 49c | 57.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 48c | 56.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06fe…268bbacked No | 52c | 55.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…3054backed No | 49c | 53.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…bb61backed Yes | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…5b98backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785e…8179backed Yes | 49c | 49.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…9809backed Yes | 53c | 48.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfd…c91cbacked No | 49c | 42.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x280d…c52bbacked Yes | 51c | 36.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…b07ebacked Yes | 47c | 33.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…0c2cbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ff…d0e5backed No | 51c | 29.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 47c | 26.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x337c…d21dbacked Yes | 53c | 24.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…f203backed Yes | 48c | 21.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…4856backed Yes | 53c | 20.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…7c83backed No | 72c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Wolf Man' opening weekend gross between $16-20m?this page
- Will 'Wolf Man' opening weekend gross between $20-24m?No won
- Will 'Wolf Man' opening weekend gross less than $16m?Yes won
- Will 'Wolf Man' opening weekend gross more than $24m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.