Movies · resolved market
Will 'Wolf Man' opening weekend gross less than $16m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63ac193294f085ea45da7881569eafda5d0e932a0f6cb64f07029c5a03a65a3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 1c | 15,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 11,691$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.19 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed No | 1c | 9,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed No | 4c | 6,301$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f4…2460backed No | 0c | 6,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 76c | 4,833$3,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.53 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked No | 4c | 4,026$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.53 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 68c | 3,617$2,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.1 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 1c | 3,540$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 8c | 3,325$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.25 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 48c | 3,168$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.64 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked No | 0c | 2,292$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…98aebacked Yes | 39c | 1,247$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.54 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked No | 43c | 922$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 6c | 890.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…166fbacked No | 4c | 883.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 2c | 860.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 41c | 750$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes | 47c | 745.24$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 45c | 699.88$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.92 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 40c | 620.04$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.02 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 63c | 600$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3b…e3babacked No | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 10c | 546.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 77c | 510.11$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 32c | 510$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.6 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…fe74backed Yes | 22c | 492.82$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 22c | 465.88$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 23c | 452.74$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 23c | 452.74$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.61 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 8c | 440$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 28c | 420$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.8 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes | 26c | 399.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.99 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 27c | 395$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes | 60c | 374.32$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.03 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 12c | 350$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…7c4fbacked No | 6c | 325.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 21c | 300$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 27c | 296.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.43 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 69c | 288.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 73c | 268.23$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.83 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 252.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…2a4bbacked No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 51c | 175.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 18c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 146.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 19c | 109.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…33e2backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…8bacbacked Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed No | 22c | 80.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 46c | 60.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 25c | 60.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 33c | 57.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.31per pick | 31cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 27c | 48.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…b07ebacked Yes | 38c | 45.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…ba14backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 72c | 28.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…a98bbacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Wolf Man' opening weekend gross less than $16m?this page
- Will 'Wolf Man' opening weekend gross between $16-20m?No won
- Will 'Wolf Man' opening weekend gross between $20-24m?No won
- Will 'Wolf Man' opening weekend gross more than $24m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.