TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Inner Circle Esportsof Inner Circle Esports, Sharks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,864 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Inner Circle Esports71c9,826$7,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,811.8963157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Inner Circle Esports66c8,287$5,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,816.153,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Sharks58c6,000$3,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,479.9833359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed Sharks44c6,000$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,639.723641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Inner Circle Esports48c3,660$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.895,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Inner Circle Esports73c3,351$2,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.944,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Inner Circle Esports44c3,071$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.612,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Sharks36c2,400$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.9932346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a2e…e1b2backed Sharks13c2,329$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.2420156.7%114 W · 87 L-0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbfc…e387backed Inner Circle Esports47c2,329$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.941190.9%10 W · 1 L+4.0wins+0.36per pick55cpaid+63.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Inner Circle Esports67c2,269$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.4943152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Sharks52c2,202$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.8117249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c2…7458backed Sharks11c2,036$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2143930.8%12 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+28.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Sharks1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Sharks53c1,960$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.7938358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Sharks21c1,769$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.4961034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Inner Circle Esports48c1,747$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.9525651.2%131 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xafc5…2b1dbacked Sharks31c1,534$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.558333.7%28 W · 55 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Sharks53c1,500$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79560853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aaf…b21abacked Inner Circle Esports48c1,444$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.74450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+56%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Inner Circle Esports43c1,131$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.291,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d0…2101backed Inner Circle Esports68c1,104$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.093560%21 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ea…863dbacked Inner Circle Esports40c1,100$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.996540%26 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Sharks40c936.54$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.44,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7e5…cc65backed Inner Circle Esports45c897.2$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.6922346.2%103 W · 120 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked Sharks30c886.62$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.2118759.4%111 W · 76 L+15.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9def…6eacbacked Sharks53c860.85$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.720358.1%118 W · 85 L+22.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Inner Circle Esports40c758.91$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.9132542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Sharks55c726.25$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked Inner Circle Esports42c714.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.2914147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Inner Circle Esports74c695.67$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.677,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Inner Circle Esports54c685.47$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.8575438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Inner Circle Esports79c653.26$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.783,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked Sharks28c652.07$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.0814544.8%65 W · 80 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Sharks38c613.32$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.743,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Sharks20c589.98$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.828943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Sharks24c580.71$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5924842.3%105 W · 143 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Sharks12c518.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6042638%162 W · 264 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Inner Circle Esports54c518.28$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.912,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Sharks52c515.51$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.0737557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Sharks23c500$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2352834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked Sharks61c500$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30411650%58 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed Inner Circle Esports46c489$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.068452.4%44 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x257c…a408backed Sharks41c487.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008045%36 W · 44 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Inner Circle Esports60c486.47$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.022,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0af3…8598backed Sharks60c474.73$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.8414749.7%73 W · 74 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc315…a989backed Sharks19c445.57$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0114322.4%32 W · 111 L-10.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Sharks49c424$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.762,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Inner Circle Esports57c418.02$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.7363038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Inner Circle Esports70c409$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.812,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Sharks47c391.67$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18526546.8%124 W · 141 L-18.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Sharks55c381.76$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.41,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6efa…a0a7backed Sharks61c360$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.830247%142 W · 160 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked Sharks34c359.59$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5841250.2%207 W · 205 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed Inner Circle Esports49c344.16$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.3667372.2%486 W · 187 L+119.1wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Inner Circle Esports76c339.33$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8389046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Sharks59c333.5$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0289248%428 W · 464 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Sharks55c312.17$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.9552150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Inner Circle Esports53c310$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.71,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Inner Circle Esports57c307.07$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.541,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50f7…903abacked Sharks23c300$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Sharks47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.560032.3%194 W · 406 L-49.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Inner Circle Esports49c299.94$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.032,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83bf…8aa4backed Sharks60c268.33$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1612528%7 W · 18 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Inner Circle Esports59c264.76$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.022,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Sharks26c261.35$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.62,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Inner Circle Esports60c258.39$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.974,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed Inner Circle Esports39c255.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.657652.6%40 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Inner Circle Esports46c250$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13558343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Sharks43c250$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.573,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c5f…31d1backed Sharks18c247.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.46820.6%14 W · 54 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Sharks56c247.41$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5936749.3%181 W · 186 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Inner Circle Esports59c245.51$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.411,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Sharks36c244.41$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.753,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7ff…3506backed Sharks16c241.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.589534.7%33 W · 62 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x461c…f74bbacked Sharks34c211.76$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7220145.8%92 W · 109 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Inner Circle Esports47c201.26$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6740148.4%194 W · 207 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Sharks39c198.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.291,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Inner Circle Esports75c195$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9945754.5%249 W · 208 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Inner Circle Esports70c194.3$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6520242.1%85 W · 117 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Sharks52c186.44$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9537145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeed…f629backed Inner Circle Esports56c178.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.753148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Inner Circle Esports63c177.68$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.614,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc38…c3b4backed Sharks12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033950.7%172 W · 167 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Sharks62c160.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5527744.4%123 W · 154 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Sharks35c158.34$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.682,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Inner Circle Esports68c149.68$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9865662.3%409 W · 247 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Inner Circle Esports75c143$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1518753.5%100 W · 87 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75b0…7db2backed Sharks61c138.41$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848941.6%37 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Sharks19c138$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.413219.7%26 W · 106 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-48.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed Sharks60c126.03$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7542757.8%247 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44b…4048backed Sharks40c123.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Inner Circle Esports52c123$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.541,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x498b…ca86backed Sharks24c122.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020659.2%122 W · 84 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Sharks44c121$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.241,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a12…a9a7backed Inner Circle Esports42c117.03$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.883040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd4…9bcdbacked Inner Circle Esports75c116.11$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5815069.3%104 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Inner Circle Esports59c112$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.461,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Inner Circle Esports57c103.39$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6691743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Sharks44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4421952.5%115 W · 104 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.