TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Honvéd (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-RUSTECof ex-RUSTEC, Honvéd
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,641
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,641 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0478…37c3backed ex-RUSTEC56c5,403$3,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.769952.5%52 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Honvéd13c3,193$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.3975245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d8…8eafbacked ex-RUSTEC66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.994768.1%32 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Honvéd33c2,973$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.0716343.6%71 W · 92 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed ex-RUSTEC60c1,798$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.223356.2%131 W · 102 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Honvéd22c1,655$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.681,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Honvéd15c1,507$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9175245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed ex-RUSTEC69c1,441$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.441,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ex-RUSTEC70c1,386$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.525,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4176…1ddcbacked ex-RUSTEC51c1,238$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.681560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked Honvéd37c1,170$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42824447.1%115 W · 129 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked ex-RUSTEC50c810$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.894645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Honvéd32c770$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.31,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed ex-RUSTEC58c736.58$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.9935153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Honvéd43c696.12$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.692,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Honvéd48c682.02$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.727,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Honvéd51c665.08$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.315,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc59f…954ebacked Honvéd46c657.13$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.7321653.2%115 W · 101 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked Honvéd31c652.78$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3634140.8%139 W · 202 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Honvéd53c597.05$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.654,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73bf…8475backed Honvéd43c581.08$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-43.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Honvéd30c463.14$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4555039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed Honvéd47c435.25$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4112049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1efb…dd8abacked Honvéd42c418.21$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.657946.8%37 W · 42 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed ex-RUSTEC73c415.55$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.242,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0f59backed ex-RUSTEC61c396.14$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.5721845.9%100 W · 118 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c6…7457backed ex-RUSTEC45c390.55$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.235556.4%31 W · 24 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a9a…a9c7backed Honvéd34c381$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1299241.3%38 W · 54 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f15…7691backed Honvéd43c379$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.56446.9%30 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed Honvéd55c340.99$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5435848.3%173 W · 185 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xece5…6de0backed ex-RUSTEC48c333.79$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.1913449.3%66 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40fc…498dbacked Honvéd30c333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.914441%59 W · 85 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Honvéd53c327.38$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17459343.2%256 W · 337 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed ex-RUSTEC61c301.21$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9261054.9%335 W · 275 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x602a…9a6ebacked Honvéd42c300$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1266841.2%28 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd68…0f6bbacked Honvéd55c294.55$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.52245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb595…4b77backed Honvéd42c292.86$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1235545.5%25 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ex-RUSTEC70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.712,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed ex-RUSTEC68c282.87$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1737057%211 W · 159 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf901…5f48backed Honvéd27c272.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.548444%37 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed ex-RUSTEC59c260.27$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.927352.1%38 W · 35 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3870…c3dbbacked Honvéd50c250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Honvéd33c242.98$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.362,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a30…7039backed ex-RUSTEC51c239.99$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.194454.5%24 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed Honvéd30c230.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.567234.7%25 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed ex-RUSTEC78c216.83$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.135148.1%169 W · 182 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89f6…0b0fbacked Honvéd42c210.89$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8830%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd30…fc9bbacked Honvéd30c207.34$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.39443.6%41 W · 53 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ex-RUSTEC69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked Honvéd30c191.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5925944.8%116 W · 143 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Honvéd34c191.37$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.252,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Honvéd32c189$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.335,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe660…514fbacked Honvéd10c187.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189938.4%38 W · 61 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked ex-RUSTEC61c178.07$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.162,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Honvéd43c166.44$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.744,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Honvéd36c164.98$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.441,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed ex-RUSTEC65c159.66$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8874054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e2…9aeebacked Honvéd46c158.37$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.955240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b26…8c32backed ex-RUSTEC63c157.86$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8612750.4%64 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Honvéd43c157.67$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2475833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Honvéd42c155$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.463,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed ex-RUSTEC60c150.66$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2629543.1%127 W · 168 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Honvéd41c145.97$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.031,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed ex-RUSTEC70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8646555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d4…0289backed Honvéd50c139.7$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7017546.3%81 W · 94 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed ex-RUSTEC77c138.28$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9224260.3%146 W · 96 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Honvéd49c128$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9551446.9%241 W · 273 L-22.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x824a…3952backed ex-RUSTEC70c126.37$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3714139.7%56 W · 85 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24f3…cf28backed Honvéd37c123.21$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7940%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked ex-RUSTEC58c121.19$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.962,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Honvéd46c120.97$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.651,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4b…ecc5backed Honvéd31c117.49$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.426942%29 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd325…2482backed Honvéd25c115.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.631513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-72.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Honvéd48c110$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.855738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc269…7841backed Honvéd42c109.52$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466333.3%21 W · 42 L-11.4wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-33.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x24cc…0927backed ex-RUSTEC80c105$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.513254.5%72 W · 60 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Honvéd42c104.76$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4454543.5%237 W · 308 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Honvéd46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4666436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed Honvéd58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6717044.1%75 W · 95 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ex-RUSTEC70c92.9$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.862,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Honvéd29c90$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.27856.4%44 W · 34 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Honvéd47c88.44$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3289046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf2…ac54backed ex-RUSTEC68c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.65248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Honvéd58c74.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.491,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Honvéd36c74.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4662248.2%300 W · 322 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ex-RUSTEC55c73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.613,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Honvéd20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.761,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Honvéd34c67.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8521750.7%110 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Honvéd34c64.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.881,84847.6%879 W · 969 L-55.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked Honvéd48c56.4$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.897042.9%30 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed ex-RUSTEC70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1567750.2%340 W · 337 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Honvéd34c48.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2488330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a66…fa83backed Honvéd31c45.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x657c…66a3backed Honvéd30c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.54045%18 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed Honvéd42c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.845748.1%220 W · 237 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed ex-RUSTEC71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2583856.1%470 W · 368 L+31.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf76…ffeabacked Honvéd38c42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9622837.3%85 W · 143 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe36c…a856backed Honvéd34c39.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.538637.2%32 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cf1…d7febacked Honvéd30c36.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9923835.3%84 W · 154 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9f…75cabacked ex-RUSTEC69c36.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.131450%7 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.