Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2adea4d95b2b5184db525715c647f71e6aa7bb851083b1e275ec215cbe274dca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Newcastle United FCof Manchester United FC, Newcastle United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,857 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 6,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Manchester United FC | 18c | 5,388$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.48 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…1f26backed Manchester United FC | 16c | 2,740$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bb…54ebbacked Manchester United FC | 19c | 2,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 1,579$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Manchester United FC | 20c | 1,491$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.2 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Manchester United FC | 18c | 1,249$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.82 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Manchester United FC | 18c | 1,217$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.51 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Manchester United FC | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Manchester United FC | 29c | 969.47$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Manchester United FC | 22c | 457$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 282 | 42.2%119 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Manchester United FC | 26c | 433.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.73 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Manchester United FC | 22c | 432.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 378 | 40.5%153 W · 225 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…8206backed Manchester United FC | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Manchester United FC | 16c | 396$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Manchester United FC | 19c | 379.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…3f0abacked Manchester United FC | 29c | 346.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Manchester United FC | 27c | 327.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd5…09c2backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 327.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Manchester United FC | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Newcastle United FC | 77c | 288$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Newcastle United FC | 79c | 277.18$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 192 | 35.9%69 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…a352backed Manchester United FC | 17c | 186.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Manchester United FC | 10c | 185.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Manchester United FC | 13c | 156.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Manchester United FC | 21c | 129.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Manchester United FC | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Newcastle United FC | 79c | 114.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Manchester United FC | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Manchester United FC | 21c | 73.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Manchester United FC | 14c | 73.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Newcastle United FC | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 52.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Newcastle United FC | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Newcastle United FC | 80c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Newcastle United FC | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…fb71backed Newcastle United FC | 79c | 20.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Newcastle United FC | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2246…e958backed Newcastle United FC | 79c | 12.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.