Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x778bb55963c98acbff450f240920086060b75b8b5c3d9f554682bcf6e502c2dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,077 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 6,459$5,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.63 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 22c | 4,545$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 3,702$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.74 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…d08bbacked Under | 79c | 2,000$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 78c | 1,709$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.9 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 1,534$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.62 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed Over | 21c | 1,429$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 21c | 1,249$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.52 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 77c | 608.77$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.02 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed Under | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…1177backed Under | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 27c | 382.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 28c | 326.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 21c | 323$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 78c | 288$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 216.01$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under | 79c | 215$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 228 | 32.9%75 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 21c | 188$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 101 | 12.9%13 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 23c | 180.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…3dadbacked Over | 23c | 145.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 50cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ef9bbacked Over | 30c | 135.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…6fc8backed Under | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 70cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9445backed Over | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 78c | 81.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…8e6fbacked Over | 28c | 75.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 27c | 74.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 27c | 74.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Over | 22c | 73.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5335backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…88c4backed Under | 78c | 48.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 77c | 44.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 207 | 63.8%132 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 77c | 40.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Under | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Under | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Under | 78c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed Under | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 43 | 79.1%34 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +47%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.