Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3afd890f47b8fb9fb9e6b9c8d75fbec5b9287c5546eedcd76240e996202c17dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 8,594$1,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.18 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 16c | 2,124$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.87 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 80c | 1,874$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.8 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b0…dcd6backed Over | 62c | 1,428$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 1,172$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…c308backed Over | 76c | 1,151$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.6 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 30c | 926.63$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.44 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…9cfbbacked Over | 75c | 815.44$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.86 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 24c | 809.11$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.91 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Under | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 16c | 413.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…0beebacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 74c | 384.67$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 56c | 369.15$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.24 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 320.53$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.85 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Over | 78c | 296.64$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Over | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 15c | 193.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 66c | 173$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under | 17c | 152.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 181 | 24.9%45 W · 136 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 37c | 114.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Over | 52c | 109.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 188 | 41.5%78 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 55c | 107.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 31c | 101.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Under | 15c | 97.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 101 | 12.9%13 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…c56dbacked Under | 31c | 97.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 78c | 74.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 177 | 45.2%80 W · 97 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1835…83afbacked Over | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…ff44backed Over | 54c | 47.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…0838backed Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 37c | 32.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 67c | 29.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c66…0a4fbacked Under | 53c | 25.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…fedbbacked Over | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…f76ebacked Over | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Newcastle United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.