TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Hurricanes vs. Flames

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Flamesof Hurricanes, Flames
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$560,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $560,294 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 508 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Flames21c100,000$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,999.9448545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Flames36c83,288$29,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,637.4567051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Hurricanes79c76,735$60,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,558.671,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Flames35c30,000$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,500.345261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Flames35c25,429$8,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,529.161,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Flames35c24,110$8,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,671.6956152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hurricanes65c21,645$13,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,977.8361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hurricanes64c19,809$12,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,735.181,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4738…df78backed Hurricanes55c16,121$8,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,883.845735.1%20 W · 37 L-13.5wins-0.24per pick59cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Hurricanes53c15,026$7,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,903.4975251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f1…d867backed Flames60c13,207$7,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,258.435969.5%41 W · 18 L+9.9wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+36.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Hurricanes65c11,861$7,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,709.374553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…ead2backed Hurricanes66c11,618$7,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6551154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Flames66c11,273$7,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,793.842,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Hurricanes64c10,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,40061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Hurricanes64c10,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,399.958134.6%28 W · 53 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Flames78c9,477$7,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,064.6289636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Hurricanes34c9,016$3,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,031.3539344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Hurricanes64c8,426$5,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,392.74252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Hurricanes65c8,268$5,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,37432151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Hurricanes62c8,215$5,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,093.0450049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc339…ba5bbacked Hurricanes65c7,562$4,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9157149.3%35 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Hurricanes32c7,512$2,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,367.3160337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hurricanes34c7,285$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.651,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x686f…ccb1backed Flames74c6,397$4,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Hurricanes64c6,141$3,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9303542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Hurricanes17c5,723$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.330944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Hurricanes79c5,666$4,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,476.148845.5%40 W · 48 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Hurricanes65c5,500$3,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,57544551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4219…7855backed Hurricanes33c5,473$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.481070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Flames51c5,335$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,637.023,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Flames60c4,843$2,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.851,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Hurricanes65c4,535$2,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,942.6121755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf958…5a02backed Hurricanes27c4,500$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2151450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Flames35c4,500$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,924.9629146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Hurricanes27c4,271$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.0740351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Hurricanes65c4,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6001,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Hurricanes30c3,332$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Flames34c3,136$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.61,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Flames35c3,030$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.4933243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Flames37c3,000$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,889.9860249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Hurricanes7c2,999$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.452222.7%5 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+79%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Flames38c2,924$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.683647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Hurricanes65c2,861$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85933950.1%170 W · 169 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2002…de36backed Hurricanes61c2,817$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7232458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x10c4…efd9backed Hurricanes65c2,723$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7701428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-49.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xad84…1f2bbacked Hurricanes64c2,697$1,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.031030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-45.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Hurricanes36c2,593$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.3135829.3%105 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Flames77c2,585$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.154173.2%30 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Flames37c2,500$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,57527850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Flames62c2,275$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.5132744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Flames58c2,267$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.6852172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Flames65c2,254$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.652,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Hurricanes79c2,167$1,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,711.8117057.1%97 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hurricanes65c2,137$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.0579350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Hurricanes63c2,136$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.5586852.4%455 W · 413 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Hurricanes64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28089249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Hurricanes53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0604957.1%28 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Flames36c2,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,28030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Hurricanes59c2,000$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.833351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Flames37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.9943548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Flames73c1,826$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.2782043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Hurricanes23c1,787$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.9658841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Hurricanes65c1,700$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.7530348.8%148 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Flames35c1,700$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.591653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b0…df60backed Hurricanes65c1,638$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0651827.8%5 W · 13 L-5.4wins-0.30per pick58cpaid-52.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Flames53c1,630$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.430259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Hurricanes65c1,558$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.551,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Flames36c1,550$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9925850%29 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Hurricanes42c1,519$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.9721555.3%119 W · 96 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Flames37c1,500$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94545749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Hurricanes34c1,490$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.186357.1%36 W · 27 L+6.7wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Flames49c1,457$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.1395049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Hurricanes65c1,430$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.520147.8%96 W · 105 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a17…1b84backed Flames36c1,390$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.583756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ce…5975backed Hurricanes65c1,328$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86340%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Hurricanes32c1,328$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.6234538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Hurricanes65c1,300$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.8170249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Flames35c1,212$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.0914650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67be…8a3bbacked Hurricanes46c1,198$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55518746.5%87 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f69…23cbbacked Hurricanes9c1,132$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5611127%30 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick27cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c0…5930backed Hurricanes27c1,111$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick49cpaid+52.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Hurricanes63c1,111$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9333447.9%160 W · 174 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b98…e295backed Hurricanes19c1,109$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Flames34c1,029$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.1483149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hurricanes65c1,013$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.945751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Flames68c1,007$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.0657157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Flames74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26014757.1%84 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Flames37c999.98$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.9962249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Flames36c999.89$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.939157.1%52 W · 39 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Hurricanes35c934.62$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.633234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69d9…9881backed Hurricanes65c923.16$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030657.8%177 W · 129 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Hurricanes75c911$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.5225635.9%92 W · 164 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Hurricanes29c904$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.0827739.4%109 W · 168 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Hurricanes57c893.51$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.211,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hurricanes65c886.74$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.382,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Flames34c870.16$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.26414.1%9 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-71.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Hurricanes17c833.97$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.514837.2%55 W · 93 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Flames35c818$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.784953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Hurricanes25c811.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.