TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Top Esports, Bilibili Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$214,257
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$250,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,257 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc44f…d49fbacked Top Esports31c31,008$9,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,722.8457246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8f…de20backed Top Esports1c14,582$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.6512652.4%66 W · 60 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed Top Esports7c13,010$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.2755639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bilibili Gaming70c10,324$7,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,125.8290348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Bilibili Gaming66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,399.9814448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Bilibili Gaming66c7,769$5,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.7359450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Bilibili Gaming66c5,896$3,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,004.5814247.2%67 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Top Esports34c5,882$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00016047.5%76 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Bilibili Gaming65c5,743$3,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.431,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Bilibili Gaming70c5,045$3,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.6254756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Bilibili Gaming69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5501,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Top Esports34c4,574$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55559248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Top Esports34c4,506$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.690537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed Top Esports34c4,412$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5008943.8%39 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x681b…3d79backed Top Esports18c4,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72017749.7%88 W · 89 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Bilibili Gaming69c3,499$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.661,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e2…25eabacked Top Esports6c3,417$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9911342.5%48 W · 65 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Top Esports13c3,359$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.8167553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5903…d02bbacked Top Esports5c3,264$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2214327.3%39 W · 104 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed Top Esports1c3,063$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.781,24152.7%654 W · 587 L+5.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Top Esports35c2,833$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.42,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Bilibili Gaming70c2,161$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.441,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Top Esports29c2,088$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60013538.5%52 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed Top Esports3c2,082$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4244120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Bilibili Gaming70c2,018$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.451,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Bilibili Gaming71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58059558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Top Esports30c1,754$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.0951146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed Top Esports16c1,618$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.0831644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38ac…f9b7backed Top Esports31c1,613$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003847.4%18 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed Top Esports34c1,591$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54121440.2%86 W · 128 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked Bilibili Gaming66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.1550155.3%277 W · 224 L-21.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Top Esports29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.991,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76cf…9452backed Top Esports30c1,368$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.4810941.3%45 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Bilibili Gaming69c1,315$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.871,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd401…93fbbacked Top Esports20c1,250$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Top Esports27c1,203$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.972,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89bd…cc95backed Top Esports21c1,200$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.782619.2%5 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-34.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x82c6…0d1ebacked Top Esports34c1,146$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.644146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Bilibili Gaming70c1,100$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33018953.4%101 W · 88 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8756…3c83backed Top Esports28c1,100$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3108543.5%37 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Top Esports35c1,040$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35940145.4%182 W · 219 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03d6…15b7backed Top Esports5c1,040$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559649%47 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Bilibili Gaming70c1,035$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.5358850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Bilibili Gaming70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Bilibili Gaming71c985.7$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.851,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Top Esports15c963.87$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.522,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Top Esports7c900$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.41,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Top Esports5c849.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.951,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7829…cfd3backed Top Esports37c763.36$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.4428734.1%98 W · 189 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa640…3b9fbacked Top Esports7c750$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032948.6%160 W · 169 L+21.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Bilibili Gaming67c746.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.2735353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Top Esports14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10035545.4%161 W · 194 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Bilibili Gaming70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.291,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed Top Esports10c710$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711,37248.6%667 W · 705 L+57.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c39…36c6backed Top Esports3c700$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8312119.8%24 W · 97 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Top Esports4c533.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6113030.8%40 W · 90 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Bilibili Gaming72c516.59$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.651,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd41b…f231backed Top Esports35c515.06$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.2730440.1%122 W · 182 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e1…165bbacked Top Esports10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011032.7%36 W · 74 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c8e…e23abacked Bilibili Gaming72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1409173.6%67 W · 24 L+13.2wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+25.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x19b5…c0aebacked Top Esports34c499.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1707042.9%30 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd599…7a1fbacked Top Esports2c499.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.513842%58 W · 80 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Top Esports9c490$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.23,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78e8…3c36backed Top Esports35c476.26$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6918036.1%65 W · 115 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f0…c55dbacked Top Esports31c461.29$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14311330.1%34 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ecb…d265backed Top Esports9c444.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409464.9%61 W · 33 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Top Esports25c444$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9415632.7%51 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4771…b432backed Top Esports3c420.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+84%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Top Esports7c413.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.081,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb676…2dbbbacked Top Esports7c410.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015756.7%89 W · 68 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Bilibili Gaming71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11670456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Bilibili Gaming69c400$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12464453.9%347 W · 297 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Bilibili Gaming66c380$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.229952.2%156 W · 143 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Top Esports34c375.88$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1281,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Bilibili Gaming66c338.55$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.491,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd11…8acfbacked Top Esports6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Top Esports10c314.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4597427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Bilibili Gaming66c310.59$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5786144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf592…b62dbacked Bilibili Gaming70c302.72$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8268557.5%394 W · 291 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Top Esports35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10579653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed Bilibili Gaming73c293$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1135560.8%216 W · 139 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Top Esports35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Top Esports19c279$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5758420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Bilibili Gaming70c275$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.596054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Bilibili Gaming69c253.44$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.361,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Top Esports4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1049346.5%229 W · 264 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Top Esports34c249.98$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.991,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Bilibili Gaming64c243.75$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7534357.1%196 W · 147 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Bilibili Gaming70c218.4$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5244451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Top Esports36c208.32$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9916035%56 W · 104 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Top Esports15c204.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.862,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e6…b9f9backed Top Esports5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1062743.9%275 W · 352 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked Bilibili Gaming72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5618335.5%65 W · 118 L-23.7wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Bilibili Gaming67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6636660.1%220 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1144…b7b5backed Top Esports5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106719.4%13 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5954…7d41backed Top Esports37c191.17$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.739250%46 W · 46 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e7…afa9backed Top Esports15c183.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272544%11 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Top Esports35c179$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.651,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Bilibili Gaming66c174.97$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.141,64344.4%730 W · 913 L-42.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Bilibili Gaming67c151.49$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.991,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.