TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Top Esports, Bilibili Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$307,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$297,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,305 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 281 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1341…0853backed Bilibili Gaming73c51,758$37,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,005.911,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76cf…9452backed Top Esports27c38,782$10,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,471.1510941.3%45 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Bilibili Gaming73c35,193$25,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,332.0514448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Top Esports26c19,031$4,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,967.051,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5903…d02bbacked Top Esports10c17,784$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.4514327.3%39 W · 104 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6130…a7a6backed Top Esports10c16,314$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.537936.7%29 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e18…1c85backed Top Esports9c15,548$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.44330%0 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked Top Esports19c11,000$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,09049541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Top Esports28c9,475$2,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,688.4154529.7%162 W · 383 L-34.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Bilibili Gaming70c6,157$4,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.1659450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a6…0dcfbacked Top Esports10c5,275$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.0510748.6%52 W · 55 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Bilibili Gaming71c5,171$3,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.7114247.2%67 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Top Esports27c4,074$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10090537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x449f…cf01backed Top Esports8c4,030$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.33812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-77.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Top Esports22c4,000$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8961,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Top Esports27c3,862$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.7520036.5%73 W · 127 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd273…9a33backed Top Esports27c3,618$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.92634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Top Esports26c3,599$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.8790348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Top Esports28c3,119$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.012,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Top Esports26c2,871$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.5751146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Top Esports9c2,347$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.061,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Top Esports27c2,116$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.3224147.3%114 W · 127 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Top Esports7c2,082$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.741,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeed6…ec56backed Bilibili Gaming74c2,027$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.0320649.5%102 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Top Esports27c2,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53018336.6%67 W · 116 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b5…c0aebacked Top Esports28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.997042.9%30 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa386…cb0fbacked Bilibili Gaming71c1,994$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.263148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Top Esports30c1,740$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52222142.5%94 W · 127 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Top Esports14c1,679$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.2644851.8%232 W · 216 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1171…98dcbacked Top Esports27c1,675$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.251225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Bilibili Gaming74c1,572$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.9759558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fc5…e3b9backed Bilibili Gaming72c1,532$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.1715659.6%93 W · 63 L-13.1wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6202…8872backed Top Esports3c1,522$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0839859.8%238 W · 160 L+31.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Top Esports8c1,486$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.761,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d6…f1e2backed Bilibili Gaming74c1,437$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.69938.4%38 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…c00abacked Bilibili Gaming79c1,437$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.4411146.8%52 W · 59 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Top Esports28c1,429$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40013452.2%70 W · 64 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd01…d5acbacked Bilibili Gaming72c1,398$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.4424858.1%144 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Bilibili Gaming74c1,351$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.3535353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Top Esports27c1,200$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.152,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2269…6233backed Bilibili Gaming66c1,200$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40825065.6%164 W · 86 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aef…22d9backed Bilibili Gaming67c1,200$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.9934568.7%237 W · 108 L+24.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Top Esports3c1,177$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.563,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b26…6091backed Top Esports10c1,121$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Top Esports27c1,111$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a5…9450backed Top Esports10c1,095$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3417729.9%53 W · 124 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked Top Esports15c1,048$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.1748844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Top Esports29c1,045$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30322644.2%100 W · 126 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Top Esports29c1,032$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.2840145.4%182 W · 219 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4425…6137backed Top Esports29c1,003$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27c7…ba3ebacked Bilibili Gaming70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30033069.7%230 W · 100 L+28.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Bilibili Gaming71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2901,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Bilibili Gaming74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26047455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Bilibili Gaming70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Top Esports26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x11ea…85c0backed Top Esports2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Top Esports29c999.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29089347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf024…fbd3backed Bilibili Gaming69c999.97$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.9916546.7%77 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Bilibili Gaming74c947.97$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.9786144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Top Esports15c935.52$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.41,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Top Esports26c923.35$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.8258420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Top Esports7c919.03$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3113030.8%40 W · 90 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Top Esports7c846.11$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5826635%93 W · 173 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Top Esports8c782.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Bilibili Gaming70c751.31$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.0938640.4%156 W · 230 L-17.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked Top Esports26c712.85$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.3215821.5%34 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed Top Esports31c708.71$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.8712941.1%53 W · 76 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7829…cfd3backed Top Esports31c707.26$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.2528734.1%98 W · 189 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Top Esports11c680$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.88046.3%37 W · 43 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe623…9800backed Top Esports15c654.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014335%50 W · 93 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Top Esports30c649.98$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1954146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Top Esports10c625.73$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.042,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Top Esports5c620.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.741,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Top Esports29c620.41$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.662917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Top Esports4c600$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261543.9%6 W · 148 L-0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Top Esports5c599.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.215333.3%51 W · 102 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cbb…86ebbacked Bilibili Gaming71c594.03$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Top Esports27c581.37$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9749847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a4c…068abacked Bilibili Gaming80c568.6$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8610335.9%37 W · 66 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ffb…b2f8backed Bilibili Gaming70c554.98$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.49850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f3…37f9backed Top Esports15c540.78$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1315356.9%87 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Bilibili Gaming75c534.46$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4623672%170 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21d4…c0eebacked Bilibili Gaming72c527.44$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.037754.5%42 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Bilibili Gaming70c510$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1532281.8%18 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+20%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed Bilibili Gaming73c500.15$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.0422240.1%89 W · 133 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Top Esports30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15032542.2%137 W · 188 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Bilibili Gaming74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13021150.7%107 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8b7a…afb0backed Top Esports27c499.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1358235.4%29 W · 53 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Top Esports9c496.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.061,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20a5…f86ebacked Top Esports31c464$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.841450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Top Esports14c444.03$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.372,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf2…3b95backed Bilibili Gaming71c422.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5421956.6%124 W · 95 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1bae…ae9fbacked Bilibili Gaming75c405.81$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4524563.7%156 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed Top Esports34c403.69$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.542748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Top Esports12c401.68$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3622245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Top Esports10c400$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.551,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Top Esports12c400$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4676142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Top Esports26c400$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1042,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Top Esports12c400$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4695041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Top Esports27c387.7$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.681,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.